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Friday, April 4, 2008

Welcome to Your Real Recession (VIDEO)

Challenge Accounts:

Investing Account Balance: $241.92
Stock / Futures Trading Balance: $734.39
Online Savings Balance: $22.10

Personal Trading Thoughts: Cash. No positions. Wow. Didn't see that coming. I had no swing positions, so nothing lost due to my outlook. But wow. Nearly 400 points on the DOW on Monday. I have a vacation coming up though, and I don't want to get caught in the middle of a swing trade, before I leave. Therefore, no trades this month.

Personal Investing Thoughts: Cash is my largest position. I still hold all of my long term stocks. My bearish outlook hasn't gone away. But there is another possibility. We could 'channel' for a while. In other words, a short-term bottom might be developing, as the market goes sideways for a while. I'm still prepared for a 35% drawdown from the highs. But at the same time, I have an itch to expand the investment portfolio. Even after today's video, I might. I say again, might purchase some DTE for a long term DRIP play. If I did, it would be just a nibble, not any massive purchase. I maintain that if the recession is a short one (1 year) then the bottom could come any time as the market will be the first one out of the recession. If the recession is longer (2 years) then we haven't seen the bottom yet. I leave the predicting to God. I might take a nibble soon, but that's all it would be. A nibble. Cash would remain my largest position.

It has arrived. They've finally admitted it. Unemployment jumped up past 5%. We've warned them for months, and months and months that a real, honest to god recession was on the way. And now, here it is.

I promise to get back to Charting 101 on Monday

* * *

Investing Account Balance: $241.92
Stock / Futures Trading Balance: $734.39
Online Savings Balance: $22.10

Total Trades and Investments: 3
Largest Inter-trade Drawdown: $86.51
Consecutive Losing Trades (Drawdown): 2
Average Drawdown: $82.56
Average Loss: $82.56
Accuracy Rate: 33%
Average Reward: $179.75
Risk : Reward Ratio: 1 : 2.02

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 12 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research and tolerance for risk.

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