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Sunday, November 30, 2008

And Then ...

"Laugh at yourself, but don't ever aim your doubt at yourself." - Alan Alda

This is what Paul Harvey might call ... "The rest of the story ..."...

(Video Included. If you're seeing this from Email subscription? Click on the Title Link in the Email to View the Video ...)



On Monday, we will have a video for the "Challenge Project" for December, and on Tuesday will be my "Airelon's Thoughts for December 2008" vlog entry ...

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Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 12 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Saturday, November 29, 2008

Week in Review: This Vlog, A Podcast, The Stock Market, and BUD

". . . Do many calculations lead to victory, and few calculations to defeat: how much more no calculation at all! It is by attention to this point that I can foresee who is likely to w in or lose." - Sun Tzu, The Art of War

Those who have been with me from the beginning? Know that this blog has changed a bit. I've tried to make things look more polished as time goes by. Then I merged my vlog, and my blog into one. I'm thinking of having more text blog entries in the future. So, in this vlog entry for this "Week in Review" I discuss future plans, the Stock Market, and Anheuser-Busch (BUD)...

(Video Included. If you're seeing this from Email subscription? Click on the Title Link in the Email to View the Video ...)



On Monday, we will have a video for the "Challenge Project" for December, and on Tuesday will be my "Airelon's Thoughts for December 2008" vlog entry ...

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Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 12 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Friday, November 28, 2008

Did You Miss the BlogTV Show?

Once again, we had a great time at the BlogTV show this afternoon at 5:00 pm to 7:00 pm ...

We started off talking about a bit of fluff, as well as some news items. I then discussed my plans for this blogged "vlog". What I present as far as plans? I have much to thank Big_B (Brian) for here at the blog. He suggested the following in some in one of the comments on my daily blog. At the same time? "newutubejunkie" asked me about starting my own fund ...

(Videos are Included. If you're seeing this from Email subscription? Click on the Title Link in the Email to View the Video ...)


Consolidation and Funds - Broadcast your self LIVE


Sometimes, traders will miss opportunties and not make money. And just bewail the fact that they didn't make the money they 'could' have made. There are always opportunties.

We discussed trusts, and at the same time, the question came up "Do I believe in Peak Oil?" ...


Oil and Opportunity - Broadcast your self LIVE


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Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 12 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Airelon's Pre-Market Thoughts: The DOW, The U.S. Dollar and Bonds ...

"Opportunities multiply as they are seized." - Sun Tzu, The Art of War

What a Friday.

I'm trying something out right now. I figured I'd throw something up with my "pre-market" thoughts, as is contained in the vlog entry below. I am thinking of making this some sort of regular feature. Maybe once or twice a week. I learned this morning I have to make sure to be up much earlier to get the video done however.

At 9:00 am I have my FRO web shareholders presentation, which I missed half of, and will have to catch later on Frontline Ltd.'s website (most companies store their web presentations), because Firefox just threw a fit on me. But at least I caught some interesting questions there at the end of it.

I compiled the video, then Windows completely freaked out.

Then at 10:00 am (In a few minutes as I write this) I have my SFL web shareholders presentation ... as Google is uploading and processing the video.

ARGH! I'm getting ready to pull my hair out.

Regardless here is the first, possibly with others to follow, of "Airelon's Pre-Market Thoughts" ...

(Video Included. If you're seeing this from Email subscription? Click on the Title Link in the Email to View the Video ...)



This afternoon, we have the BlogTV show at 5:00 pm EST, and on Saturday, the "Week in Review" ...

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Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 12 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

BlogTV Interactive Show Today ...

Just a reminder: Today is the BlogTV show at 5:00 pm.


Airelon on Blog TV - Broadcast your self LIVE

See you there!

Thursday, November 27, 2008

We Do Not Need "Suckers" in the Market (VIDEO)

"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum

There's a fallacy that is common in the marketplace. Especially when it comes to educating others as to how to trade in the stock market, forex or commodity futures.

This fallacy is further exacerbated by the fact that many of the people "educating" others? Are simple scams. DoublingStocks is the first get rich quick scheme that comes to mind. When you attack anyone who supports these scams? Sometimes the argument is used:

"Well, we need the dumb suckers sitting down at the table? In order to provide liquidity"

Meaning, that those of us who understand what we are doing? We need people who have no concept of what is going on, in order to have more shares going on. That is a concept that I thoroughly, and completely disagree with. Obviously, this has to do with trading because investing is about wealth creation. There is no zero sum process with investing. With investing, you are looking to share with others in the profits that a company generates; commonly in the form of dividends.

But do we "need" suckers in the marketplace when it comes to trading? I discuss that in this vlog entry ...

I discuss that in this vlog entry ...

I also want to say that the version contained here on this blog? Is the longer Google Version. Google allows me to upload videos longer than 10 minutes. The version I had for YouTube had to be cut down, to make it adhere to their 10 minute, non-partner policy.

(Video Included. If you're seeing this from Email subscription? Click on the Title Link in the Email to View the Video ...)



Tomorrow is Friday. There is the BlogTV show, and on Saturday, the "Week in Review" ...

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Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 12 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

The Inefficiency of Director Pay at the Big 3

"Egotism is nature's compensation for mediocrity."

On the topic of the markets? The two things I'm watching during this trading day is the US Dollar (DXZ8) which is bounching off the lows of the last 10 days, and is starting to bounce up. I'm contrasting that two the DOW Jones, which is struggling to attempt to make higher highs.

Ok. Onto the topic of this blog entry. The Big three.

Some time ago I discussed the inefficiency of the Big 3; Ford, GM and Chrysler.

But I didn't specify exactly what I meant. What inefficiency? Some have risen to the defense of the Big 3, and pointed to specific programs that they put in place to become more efficient, and more competitive.

When I talk about the inefficiency of the Big 3, I could point to many factors. But one factor rises above them all. The sickness of inefficiency manifests itself quite clearly with director compensation.

I discuss that in this vlog entry ...

(Video Included. If you're seeing this from Email subscription? Click on the Title Link in the Email to View the Video ...)



Now when I said in the above vlog: "The should just fail"; I'm saying that's what others have said regarding the big three. I'm not saying "I" think they should fail. I'm saying that's what is being said. I think the main problem is inefficiency. And I also believe that the Catch 22 the economy has found itself in, is due to following Mercantilistic principles found in Mercantilistic Keynesian economics. Is that although they should fail; they cannot fail.

Tomorrow I'm going to discuss the concept I strongly disagree with. That we "need" dumb losers in the market to provide liquidity. I'll talk about that topic tomorrow ...

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Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 12 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

We Are In Completely Unchartered Waters (Control Your Risk)

"It's what you learn after you know it all that counts." - Earl Weaver

I used to only talk about having three things:

CD Ladders, Investing DRIP account, and a trading account.

That was it. And I would shuffle around the profits from time to time, depending on how each was performing.

But now? I'm trying to minimize my DRIP exposure. I'm making sure my cash is very liquid. I'm scaling back my money management strategies from something that is aggressive, to something that is very defensive. I'm even buying some physical silver at depressed prices.

Why? We discuss that in this vlog entry ...

(Video Included. If you're seeing this from Email subscription? Click on the Title Link in the Email to View the Video ...)



I'm stuck between fighting with YouTube on those earlier vlogs that I have to replace as they are a part of important playlists, and providing regular commentary on the monumental events that are ongoing.

Now I say that ... but at the same time, this week is going to be insanely busy as far as my personal affairs.

I hope I can do one remake (that you can sort of skip over if you wish, and I can plug back into the new playlist) and one commentary per day. Perhaps I'll have a remake video only twice a week ...

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Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 12 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Money Management: Strategies: Kellys S

"If a gambler places bets on the input symbol to a communication channel and bets his money in the same proportion each time a particular symbol is received, his capital will grow (or shrink) exponentially. If the odds are consistent with the probabilities of occurrence of the transmitted symbols (i.e., equal to their reciprocals), the maximum value of this exponential rate of growth will be equal to the rate of transmission of information. If the odds are not fair, i.e., not consistent with the transmitted symbol probabilities but consistent with some other set of probabilities, the maximum exponential rate of growth will be larger than it would have been with no channel by an amount equal to the rate of transmission of information" - Summary of Original Bell Labs Paper, Kelly, J. L., Jr. A New Interpretation of Information Rate, Bell System Technical Journal, pp.917-926, July, 1956.

As I mentioned the other day here on the blog? YouTube contacted me, after blocking one of my money management videos. I was under the impression that I was allowed to use under 30 seconds of any song, under the 'fair use' clause. Well, YouTube disagrees. I did not store those videos anywhere else; such as at Google Video, Metacafe, etc. Therefore, I will re-do these very important videos. At the same time? I get to improve the video quality. If you have not seen them yet? This is the most important series of videos that I ever made.

Larry Williams used a very radical and very aggressive money management strategy to set the current Robbins Cup World record in 1987 for Futures trading.

Again, the advantage is that when you're doing well, the formula will automatically scale up your position size so that your reward becomes higher. When you start having losses, it will scale back your position size.

Unfortunately, as Larry himself will tell you, Kellys has a lot of drawbacks . . . namely . . . drawdown. If your risk reward ratio is not straight on? You get nailed. Hard. So how do I use the advantages of Kellys, but mitigate the risks when trading in the Forex, Commodity Futures, Day Trading, or just in the Stock Market in general?

What follows is a description of my current money management strategy. We discuss that in this vlog entry ...

(Video Included. If you're seeing this from Email subscription? Click on the Title Link in the Email to View the Video ...)



It works best with 12 month accurate systems (around 80% +), and a risk reward ratio of around 1 risk to 2 reward. My numbers (the 12 month number fluctuates) work out to . . % of Capital = (12 mos number% (1- 12 mos accuracy) / 70 ) / IF-THEN SUBSET.

This is going to be one insane week around here. Work, appointments, family responsibilities, that sort of thing.

But as far as investing and trading? I'm looking at the DXZ8 really hard right now, and looking to see if this is a minor dip before the trend continues, or if we have a trend reversal ...

* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 12 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Monday, November 24, 2008

Challenge Project: Origins of the Philosophy Behind the Challenge Project

"If he is obliged, therefore, to give a certain number of lectures, these motives alone, without any other interest, might dispose him to take some pains to give tolerably good ones. Several different expedients, however, may be fallen upon which will effectually blunt the edge of all those incitements to diligence." - Adam Smith, An Inquiry Into The Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, Book V, I, III, article II

Those who are regular readers to my blog understand that a regular and promoted feature of my blog is something I call the "Low Funded Challenge Project". I took $500 of my own money, and I'm building it up, demonstrating every move I make in two sub-accounts off my main brokerages.

But why? Why would I do something like this? What led me to do this? What are my thoughts? Why would I not simply package this information up, and sell it for $2800 a pop?

We discuss that in the following vlog entry ... ...

(Video Included. If you're seeing this from Email subscription? Click on the Title Link in the Email to View the Video ...)



I am also going to try to get out my "Kellys S" vlog today ...

* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 12 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Saturday, November 22, 2008

Week in Review: The Death of Keynes Mercantilism?

"It is not by augmenting the capital of the country, but by rendering a greater part of that capital active and productive than would otherwise be so, that the most judicious operations of banking can increase the industry of the country" - Adam Smith

For decades now, Keynes has been held as the pinnacle of "capitalist" thought, and the latest in the evolution of what started with Adam Smith.

There's only one tiny problem with that little concept.

Keynes was no capitalist. Keynes ideas are a direct descendant of everything that Adam Smith opposed. Keynes ideas are a descendant of Mercantilism. Capitalism isn't dying, because Capitalism hasn't been practised. Keynes Mercantilistic thoughts and theories are what are dying.

Keynes firmly supported concepts found in Mercantlism. Which is that government should work in partnership with private companies.

In a Capitalistic society, there can be no lobbyists.

In a Capitalistic society, governments do not work as partners with private industry.

In a Capitalistic society, private industries do not seek capital from the government when they are doing poorly.

How should we be stay prepared to trade our way out of this mess? Buy some physical silver today, since the gold / silver ratio is favoring silver. And we can take advantage of deflation by starting to buy a little physical silver since the prices are depressed. Where do you buy it from? What about my hyperinflation video? What about the disagreements that ensued? What did we discuss on the Blog TV show? We mention this on my vlog entry for this "Week in Review" ...

(Video Included. If you're seeing this from Email subscription? Click on the Title Link in the Email to View the Video ...)



Stay safe all ...

Here's the link to the site that Ohio1998 turned me on to: The Northwest Territorial Mint.

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Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 12 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Friday, November 21, 2008

Did You Miss the Blog TV Show?

I say it every week, but it's very true. I had a lot of fun at the Blog TV show this week. We changed the time a half an hour later, for our folks that are a bit further around on the other side of the planet. It worked out great, and we had a lot of fun.

What are some topics that we discussed?

Well ... I wanted to publicly admit to a few factors.

That has to do with a video that I had some time ago. It was called "The Next Great Depression Talk"

But now? I won't stubbornly stick to ideas when factors changed. And now? Factors have changed. We discussed about depression possibilities ...


Depression 2009? Possible - Broadcast your self LIVE

Then I discussed one of the things we need to fix the current economic problem.

Small business.

I told everyone some time ago the story about my grandfather, and his view of personal responsibility. He is the one that brought his children into the world, and he was going to provide for them. The government providing assistance is considered an insult.

I followed that story up, with his view of where was the cash flow going to come from, in order to provide for those children ...


We need RESPONSIBILITY - Broadcast your self LIVE

I look forward to the next Blog TV show! Tomorrow is the "Week in Review"

Blog TV Show This Afternoon ...


Airelon on BlogTV - Broadcast your self LIVE

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Money Management: Find an Edge (VIDEO)

"Nothing gives one person so much advantage over another as to remain always cool and unruffled under all circumstances." - Thomas Jefferson

As I mentioned the other day here on the blog? YouTube contacted me, after blocking one of my money management videos. I was under the impression that I was allowed to use under 30 seconds of any song, under the 'fair use' clause. Well, YouTube disagrees. I did not store those videos anywhere else; such as at Google Video, Metacafe, etc. Therefore, I will re-do these very important videos. At the same time? I get to improve the video quality. If you have not seen them yet? This is the most important series of videos that I ever made.

Yet this is a video that I did NOT include in my earlier money management series. This is how you improve both your accuracy, and your risk : reward ratio at the same time. How do you do this? With an edge, or a fundamental advantage.

But exactly what is an "Edge" to trading. It's not technical analysis. But it assists your technical analysis. We discuss that in this vlog entry ...

(Video Included. If you're seeing this from Email subscription? Click on the Title Link in the Email to View the Video ...)



Don't forget the BlogTV show, tomorrow at 5:00 pm, EST, November the 20th, 2008 ...

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Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 12 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Money Management: Drawdown and the Low Funded Account

"Thinking will not overcome fear but action will." - W. Clement Stone

As I mentioned the other day here on the blog? YouTube contacted me, after blocking one of my money management videos. I was under the impression that I was allowed to use under 30 seconds of any song, under the 'fair use' clause. Well, YouTube disagrees. I did not store those videos anywhere else; such as at Google Video, Metacafe, etc. Therefore, I will re-do these very important videos. At the same time? I get to improve the video quality. If you have not seen them yet? This is the most important series of videos that I ever made.

So here is a repeat of the Money Management Entry: Drawdown and the Low Funded Account.

For better or worse, people who want to get involved in Day trading, the stock market, trading and investing with futures options or the Forex, perhaps they start off adequately funded, and through poor money management - they end up losing it all very quickly. Or perhaps ones look to get started, with a minimal account.

What to do?

Well, they can try to trade their way back to a break even point immediately. Committing the same mistakes that got them to that point? Or, they can start to look at what drawdown means to a low funded account.

If you have a low funded account, you have already violated a money management principle. Namely, to have an adequately funded account. Therefore, regular capital infusions is VITAL to the success of the accounts.

We discuss this in the following vlog entry ...

(Video Included. If you're seeing this from Email subscription? Click on the Title Link in the Email to View the Video ...)



Something that is necessary when implementing such a strategy? Is patience! You must be patient! You are not going to 'get rich overnight'. But you can 'accumulate wealth'. You can increase your trading accounts equity by adding capital, and adhere to money management principles.

I'm going to continue replacing these older money management videos. But I will be interspersing them with newer content videos over the next few weeks ...

* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 12 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Accumulate Assets That Hold Value. It's That Easy.

"If a man is after money, he's money mad; if he keeps it, he's a capitalist; if he spends it, he's a playboy; if he doesn't get it, he's a ne'er-do-well; if he doesn't try to get it, he lacks ambition. If he gets it without working for it; he's a parasite; and if he accumulates it after a life time of hard work, people call him a fool who never got anything out of life." - Vic Oliver

I think I may have shocked a few people the other day when I said that I was looking at picking up some physical metals, notably silver; due to the silver / gold ratio at the moment.

Why? Some people, I think have the mistaken view that I am out to defend the fiat currency system, and bash the gold standard. In actuality, I am neither 'for' or 'against' either system. I simply recognize the inherent weaknesses in both.

What it comes down to? In the end? Is that I am out to accumulate assets that will hold their value, and that may gain in value. If Gold deflates down to $300.00 an ounce? You better believe I'm going to start picking it up again.

The current environment is deflationary. With deflation? The economy can rebuild from deflation. It will be painful. But it's possible to rebuild. And at this point? The economy needs to rebuild. The closer they adhere to a Mercantilist model? The longer that rebuilding process will take. But this presents us with wonderful opportunities.

We discuss that in the following vlog entry ...

(Video Included. If you're seeing this from Email subscription? Click on the Title Link in the Email to View the Video ...)



Tomorrow I'm going to replace a vlog entry that I had some time ago on "Drawdown and the Low Funded Account" ...

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Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 12 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Monday, November 17, 2008

Money Management: Strategies

"Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win." - Sun-Tzu, The Art of War

As I mentioned the other day here on the blog? YouTube contacted me, after blocking one of my money management videos. I was under the impression that I was allowed to use under 30 seconds of any song, under the 'fair use' clause. Well, YouTube disagrees. I did not store those videos anywhere else; such as at Google Video, Metacafe, etc. Therefore, I will re-do these very important videos. At the same time? I get to improve the video quality. If you have not seen them yet? This is the most important series of videos that I ever made.

So here is a repeat of the Money Management Entry: Strategies.

There are many money management strategies. And they are applicable in any market. Be it the Forex markets, day trading the stock market, or the commodity futures markets. But I urge you to look up different money management strategies, and pick on the fits your risk tolerance. Not other peoples risk tolerance. Not my risk tolerance. Your own, personal, individual tolerance for risk.

What are a few of those strategies? We discuss that in the following vlog entry ...

(Video Included. If you're seeing this from Email subscription? Click on the Title Link in the Email to View the Video ...)



I'm going to continue replacing these older money management videos. But I will be interspersing them with newer content videos over the next few weeks ...

* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 12 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Don't Forget, the Blog TV Show !



I am scheduling this show, and later shows a half hour later. The next show is this coming Friday, November the 21st, at 5:00 pm EST.

Saturday, November 15, 2008

The Week In Review: Making Money the Boring Way ...

"The victory of success is half won when one gains the habit of setting goals and achieving them. Even the most tedious chore will become endurable as you parade through each day convinced that every task, no matter how menial or boring, brings you closer to fulfilling your dreams." - Og Mandino

Who ever thought that making money could be so boring.

I've talked about my cash position for a while. And that this has been pretty profitable.

Now as I mentioned on the BlogTV Show Friday? I have taken a couple of nibbles. Just to pass the time. So I no longer have the 91% cash position. I am currently at a cash position as of the time of this writing of 83.387%. The rest of my money is in dividend DRIP portfolios.

Has this been the "right" thing to do during this recession?

Absolutely.

Has this been the "boring" thing to do during this recession?

Absolutely.

Most days, I look for any news regarding any one of my dividend DRIP stocks. After that? Every day, I find myself passing time. Pull up a chart of DXZ8. Console myself that cash has been doing well. Pull up a chart of the DOW Jones (DJI). Pull up a chart of Oil (CLZ8). Pull up a chart of Gold (GCZ8). Rinse. Repeat. Of course, I have witnessed some very good traders getting killed trying to trade this chop. So that too, consoles me that I am doing the right thing.

But lord, is it boring. My short term trading has decreased considerably, and Friday? Friday I slept in, and didn't even watch the open. That's so unlike me. Of course, keeping these late hours hasn't assisted being up bright and early at 7:30 am each day.

Regardless? The markets continue on, and we have to watch them. What do I see for Gold? What are my thoughts on Silver? What about the Dollar? What about the DOW? I discuss that in my vlog entry for this "Week in Review" ...

(Video Included. If you're seeing this from Email subscription? Click on the Title Link in the Email to View the Video ...)



On Monday, we will continue the Money Management Series with the vlog of "Money Management Strategies".

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Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 12 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Did You Miss Friday's Blog TV Live Show?

Did you miss the show on Friday, November 14, 2008?

But in the meantime? We discussed Pickens Plan, and the common fallacy that FDR got the United States out of the Great Depression. He did not get the United States out of the Great Depression ...


FDR Prolonged Depression - Broadcast your self LIVE

I'm thinking of scheduling future shows a little later on Friday. Possibly 5:30 pm EST on Fridays. What do you think? Leave a comment below!

Thursday, November 13, 2008

Money Management: Performance Analysis

"It requires a very unusual mind to undertake the analysis of the obvious." - Alfred North Whitehead

As I mentioned the other day here on the blog? YouTube contacted me, after blocking one of my money management videos. I was under the impression that I was allowed to use under 30 seconds of any song, under the 'fair use' clause. Well, YouTube disagrees. I did not store those videos anywhere else; such as at Google Video, Metacafe, etc. Therefore, I will re-do these very important videos. At the same time? I get to improve the video quality. If you have not seen them yet? This is the most important series of videos that I ever made.

So here is a repeat of the Money Management Video: Performance Analysis

Ok. We've got the previous money management principles down. Risk Analysis. Reward Analysis, and how those two parts are tied together in the risk reward ratio. Then we discussed Trade Management and then Drawdown. We discussed Accuracy Rates.

Now we just want to jump into using them to trade the Forex, the Stock Market, to Day Trade with, or to use in the Commodity Futures arena right? Not so fast.

How do we take everything we've discussed thus far in regards to Money Management Principles, and putting them in an easy to read format? We discuss that in this vlog . . .

(Video Included. If you're seeing this from Email subscription? Click here to view the entry ...)



Next in the "Money Management Series" we will next discuss different Money Management Strategies, that depend on knowing the previous principles ...

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Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 12 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Blog TV Show!



Friday, November 13, 2008 at 4:30 pm EST

Ford? GM? You HAVE Failed the Free Markets Test...

I own a few shares of Ford as an investment. Not a trade. An investment. I bought in at $6.85, and again at $6.55. This was a few years ago. I never added anything further to the investment portfolios in regards to my Ford position. Now mind you, this position represents less than one half, of a half of a percent of my current holdings. In other words, this position could completely disappear, and it wouldn't affect my bottom line whatsoever. It would be a minor blip. But I wanted to preface the following statements by letting people know that I am a (F) Ford Motor Company shareholder.

So what do I expect to happen with Ford Motor Company?

I realistically expect that the Democratically controlled Congress to come to the rescue and give Ford, Chrysler, and General Motors operating capital so that their business can continue. Not for the sake of "Ford" or "General Motors" or "Chrysler". But so that the health of U.S. GDP and manufacturing is dealt a blow that it cannot recover from. So that the average U.S. Citizen that has retired from Ford, or General Motors, or Chrysler pensions (my father being one of those) are not screwed beyond words. So that unemployment rate in Michigan does not skyrocket beyond their already ridiculous levels. So that Michigan does not slide from a recession that has lasted years, into a depression. So that Ford, and GM, and Chrysler stock can have the opportunity, years from now, to climb to new highs.

But what do I expect with Ford Motor company stock and as an investment?

Nothing. They have proven to me what they are worth. Nothing.

I invest with companies that have proven their worth. That proven they produce a quality product. That have proven their management can quickly adapt to changing market conditions. That have proven they have the foresight to understand, at least what every other intelligent trader on this planet has known for the last two years. That a serious recession was on the way. In short? A profitable company.

Adam Smith once wrote:

"The real and effectual discipline which is exercised over a workman is that of his customers. It is the fear of losing their employment which restrains his frauds and corrects his negligence."

Ford has proven to me, without any question - that they are negligent. And I do not invest with negligent companies that are rewarded for their negligence.

So this investment has turned itself into a trade. I will wait for the inevitable to happen. I will wait for the socialization of losses. When their stock, years from now begins to climb? And when Ford Motor Company (F) stock turns around? When my position with that tiny position shows a profit? I will do the moral thing for my household. I will exit this stock at a profit.

But seriously ... what sort of screwed up world do we live in where the weak and negligent have to be saved in order to save the majority from unimaginable suffering?

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Money Management: Accuracy Rate

"The market is not your mother. It consists of tough men and women who look for ways to take money away from you instead of pouring milk into your mouth." - Dr. Alexander Elder

As I mentioned the other day here on the blog? YouTube contacted me, after blocking one of my money management videos. I was under the impression that I was allowed to use under 30 seconds of any song, under the 'fair use' clause. Well, YouTube disagrees. I did not store those videos anywhere else; such as at Google Video, Metacafe, etc. Therefore, I will re-do these very important videos. At the same time? I get to improve the video quality. If you have not seen them yet? This is the most important series of videos that I ever made.

So here is a repeat of the Money Management Video: Accuracy Rate...

Whether you trade the Forex, Commodity Futures, Day trade, or play just a bit in the stock market - you without a doubt have heard all about "Accuracy Rates". Just do a Google search. Seriously. Search for "Highly Accurate Trading" and see what pops up. All sorts of promises.

Although Accuracy is highly over-rated, and misunderstood? In this entry, we discuss that properly understanding your accuracy rate is vital to your overall Money Management Strategy ....

(Video Included. If you're seeing this from Email subscription? Click on the Title Link in the Email to View the Video ...)




Next in the "Money Management Series" we will next discuss how to put this all together with "Performance Analysis" ...

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Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 12 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Monday, November 10, 2008

Money Management: Drawdown

"The Mule was the Random Element that Hari Seldon could not predict ..." - From Isaac Asimov's "Foundation and Empire"

As I mentioned the other day here on the blog? YouTube contacted me, after blocking one of my money management videos. I was under the impression that I was allowed to use under 30 seconds of any song, under the 'fair use' clause. Well, YouTube disagrees. I did not store those videos anywhere else; such as at Google Video, Metacafe, etc. Therefore, I will re-do these very important videos. At the same time? I get to improve the video quality. If you have not seen them yet? This is the most important series of videos that I ever made.

So here is a repeat of the Money Management Vlog: Drawdown...

Why keep track of your drawdown? After all, we just want to trade right? You just want to focus in on the reward, whether it be from the Forex, Commodity Futures, or Stock Markets, right?

Drawdown assists you in understanding the worth of a system or method as well. If the person offering the system refuses to talk about the drawdown numbers of that system? That's a good indication it's a scam and highly overrated. If the person offers you a system or methodology and talks about drawdown - this lets you know that the system has verifiable merit that you can test.

But what does drawdown tell you about your system, and how you should adjust the rest of your money management strategy?

We discuss that in the following vlog entry ...

(Video Included. If you're seeing this from Email subscription? Click on the Title Link in the Email to View the Video ...)



Next in the "Money Management Series" we will next discuss the much over-hyped "Accuracy Rate" ...

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Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 12 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Money Management: Trade Management

"Create a definite plan for carrying out your desire and begin at once, whether you are ready or not, to put this plan into action." - Napoleon Hill

As I mentioned the other day here on the blog? YouTube contacted me, after blocking one of my money management videos. I was under the impression that I was allowed to use under 30 seconds of any song, under the 'fair use' clause. Well, YouTube disagrees. I did not store those videos anywhere else; such as at Google Video, Metacafe, etc. Therefore, I will re-do these very important videos. At the same time? I get to improve the video quality. If you have not seen them yet? This is the most important series of videos that I ever made.

So here is a repeat of the Money Management Video: Trade Management ...

As a trader of the forex, stock market, or commodity futures trader we always hear what? Have a trading plan. Always have a trading plan. Ok.

But what does that mean? What should that plan consist of?

We discuss that in the following vlog entry ...

(Video Included. If you're seeing this from Email subscription? Click on the Title Link in the Email to View the Video ...)




Tomorrow we discuss the dreaded Drawdown!

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Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 12 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Saturday, November 8, 2008

Week in Review: Major Suckage

"A man willing to work, and unable to find work, is perhaps the saddest sight that fortune's inequality exhibits under this sun." - Thomas Carlyle

I was at our congregation on Wednesday morning. We walked outside. It was above 70 degrees Fahrenheit. It was a group of my friends, and we were just talking in the parking lot, enjoying the absolutely gorgeous autumn we've had here in Michigan. Green grass. Warm temperatures. Beautiful colors on the trees.

We then noticed a car drive up to where we were standing. It turns out it was a family friend who is not from the area, doesn't attend our congregation, but was in the area since he works here in this county. He thought he would drop by and see if anyone was around to talk to. He was smiling, and we had a little bit of chit-chat. So finally the question arose:

"So why are you here? Why aren't you at work? Playing hooky?" we asked.

"Oh you might say that. I just found out a few minutes ago I lost my job." Just like that.

I've been hearing more and more stories like this. My heart truly goes out to those in this position ...

(Video Included. If you're seeing this from Email subscription? Click on the Title Link in the Email to View the Video ...)



On Monday, we will continue the Money Management Series with the vlog of "Trade Management".

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Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 12 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Did You Miss the BlogTV Show?

I had another great time at the live show over at BlogTV.

What are some topics we discussed?

Well, first I gave a little bit of background on the values I was raised with, on why I have such strong feelings against a 'welfare' state ...

(Videos are included. If You Are Viewing this from an email, please click on the Title Link)


No "Welfare / Dole" Here - Broadcast your self LIVE


Then we had a discussion, when the question was asked: Will the Big Three U.S. Manufacturers become the Big Two?


Big 3 to Big 2? US Auto? - Broadcast your self LIVE


I'm looking forward to the next show!

Friday, November 7, 2008

Money Management: Reward Analysis

"A man must be big enough to admit his mistakes, smart enough to profit from them, and strong enough to correct them." - John C. Maxwell

As I mentioned the other day here on the blog? YouTube contacted me, after blocking one of my money management videos. I was under the impression that I was allowed to use under 30 seconds of any song, under the 'fair use' clause. Well, YouTube disagrees. I did not store those videos anywhere else; such as at Google Video, Metacafe, etc. Therefore, I will re-do these very important videos. At the same time? I get to improve the video quality. If you have not seen them yet? This is the most important series of videos that I ever made.

So here is a repeat of the Money Management Video: Reward Analysis...

Everyone wants a profit when it comes to investing and trading. But to take a profit? You have to exit a trade. If it's an investment? Well, then you have to know when to start accepting dividends. When to start shredding profits.

When? Where? How?

We discuss that in the following vlog entry ...

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Tomorrow is the "Week in Review", and then on Monday, we will continue with "Trade Management"

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Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 12 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Thursday, November 6, 2008

Money Management: Risk Analysis

"Often the difference between a successful person and a failure is not one has better abilities or ideas, but the courage that one has to bet on one's ideas, to take a calculated risk - and to act." - Andre Malraux

As I mentioned the other day here on the blog? YouTube contacted me, after blocking one of my money management videos. I was under the impression that I was allowed to use under 30 seconds of any song, under the 'fair use' clause. Well, YouTube disagrees. I did not store those videos anywhere else; such as at Google Video, Metacafe, etc. Therefore, I will re-do these very important videos. At the same time? I get to improve the video quality. If you have not seen them yet? This is the most important series of videos that I ever made.

So here is a repeat of the Money Management Video: Risk Analysis...

(Video Included. If you're seeing this from Email subscription? Click on the Title Link in the Email to View the Video ...)



We will continue tomorrow with the video: "Reward Analysis".

* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 12 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Don't Forget ... Another BlogTV Show ...

Don't forget, Friday at 4:30 pm, Eastern Standard time!

(Video Included. If you're seeing this from Email subscription? Click on the Title Link in the Email to View the Video ...)



Here's the link to the video I was referring to ...

BlogTV Show Scheduled



We'll discuss a bit more on deflation, health of U.S. manufacturing, budget surpluses, priced risk, and any other topics you would like to discuss.

Friday, live, at BlogTV, at 4:30 pm EST.

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

A "Re" Introduction to Money Management Principles and Strategy

"Lack of money is no obstacle. Lack of an idea is an obstacle." - Ken Hakuta

As I mentioned the other day here on the blog? YouTube contacted me, after blocking one of my money management videos. I was under the impression that I was allowed to use under 30 seconds of any song, under the 'fair use' clause. Well, YouTube disagrees. I did not store those videos anywhere else; such as at Google Video, Metacafe, etc. Therefore, I will re-do those very important videos. At the same time? I get to improve the video quality. If you have not seen them yet? This is the most important series of videos that I ever made.

So here it is again ... An Introduction to Money Management ...

(Video Included. If you're seeing this from elsewhere and cannot view the Video? Click on the this Link to view the video ...)



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Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 12 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Airelon's Thoughts: November 2008

Challenge Accounts:

Investing Account Balance: $436.16
Stock / Futures Trading Balance: $964.62
Online Savings Balance: $92.76


We arrive at a new month ... November 2008. It's sort of been a habit of mine, that I put together some things that I'll be watching for the next month. So here it is ... Airelon's thoughts for November, 2008.

In the current vlog entry, we discuss the economic outlook, and any strength we may see from a stock market rally ...

(Video Included. If you're seeing this from Email subscription? Click on the Title Link in the Email to View the Video ...)


Tomorrow ... I think I'm going to begin re-doing those money management videos ...

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Current Challenge Project Account Balances and
Money Management Numbers:

Investing Account Balance: $436.16
Stock / Futures Trading Balance: $964.62
Online Savings Balance: $92.76

Total Trades: 7
Largest Inter-trade Drawdown: $86.51
Consecutive Losing Trades (Drawdown): 2
Average Drawdown: $55.18
Average Loss: $74.27
Accuracy Rate: 28.57%
Average Reward: $175.34
Risk : Reward Ratio: 1 : 2.1
Trading Money Gain / (Loss): Up + $7.33

This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 12 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Monday, November 3, 2008

Up Coming Vlogs ...

First of all, I want to apologize, because I forgot today? I was supposed to have my "Airelon's: November Thoughts" video.

In addition? YouTube just informed me that all of my earlier videos that contain songs such as "Johnny Cash" in the beginning and at the end of the song? Need to be replaced. So I will be replacing those videos in the future. Some of them are very key videos (money management videos), and therefore, I have to get them replaced ...

Dan! What Strategy Do You Use for Trading?

"Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication." - Leonardo Da Vinci

There are certain questions I receive more than others. How do I begin? What are some good books to read to get started? Where do you see the economy in 3 months?

Another question I often receive is: "What method do you use to pick your trades?"

So here it is. The ultimate, super-duper, not-so-secret method for investing and trading. I have my underlying money management strategy, and then combine the following:

1) Consider what the 'smart money' is doing.
2) Look to cyclical reversal time periods
3) Support and Resistance (Price Action + Volume)
4) Moving Averages in Multiple Time Frames
5) Seasonality

That's all. That's it. That's all I consider. On the surface, it doesn't appear that complicated. It does have a bit of an intuitive feel to it. But it's honestly not all that complicated.

And many, many, many other people trade in the same manner. I don't feel that 'revealing' how I trade? Is going to give away my 'secret' to profitable trading. Why? Because as I said, many, many people trade in this same manner. And many, many people lose money day after day. But that's because two people can take exactly identical trades, and one can make money, and the other lose. As I often say: It's about money management principles. Not the strategy.

So what strategy should you use? I discuss that in the following video.

(Video Included. If you're seeing this from Email subscription? Click on the Title Link in the Email to View the Video ...)



But please do not feel that it has to be complicated trading strategy, to work well. It doesn't. It has to 'fit you', and it has to bring results. And it has to follow money management principles.

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Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 12 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Saturday, November 1, 2008

Week in Review for November 1, 2008

"A banker is a fellow who lends you his umbrella when the sun is shining, but wants it back the minute it begins to rain." - Mark Twain

Welcome to the Week in Review.

I had a lot of fun on the BlogTV show two weeks back. I have to be honest. I was a little concerned that I would have enough information to be engaging for the full two hours. But it turned out wonderfully, and we had a lot of fun.

Well, I'm thinking of putting another one together. I talk about that, as well as when I would think about another buy in to the stock market, in the following vlog entry ...

(Video Included. If you're seeing this from Email subscription? Click on the Title Link in the Email to View the Video ...)



On Monday, I will have my "Airelon's Thoughts" for Novmeber, 2008.

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Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 12 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

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