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Friday, May 1, 2009

Find Your Bias for Entrances (VIDEO)

"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future." - Niels Bohr

I'm reviewing some emails, and I'm feeling pretty good about what I'm reading. Many readers and subscribers to this blog are truly understanding all of the pieces of Money Management.

That's fantastic. Awesome. Truly, if a new trader understands, truly understands money management? He or she will be about 3 years ahead of the game ... at least, that's true when I think of myself as a new trader back in 1996, when I started out in the markets.

But I have received many emails that, in essence state:

"Dan, I just can't seem to catch a break. I keep my loss restrictred according to the 2% rule? But I can't seem to have a profitable trade. I keep getting stopped out. I think the problem may be in my bias, or edge. What do I do?"

I discuss finding a bias, and edge, in the following vlog entry ...

(Video Included. If you're seeing this entry elsewhere and cannot see the Video? Click here to view the entry ...)

This is the chart I mention to look at, during this video:

Here is a link to the book from MRCI that I order the metrics regarding seasonal data.

Here is the link to my YouTube series and playlist regarding Futures. There are four videos there you have to watch, in order to understand the COT Report. "The Players" of Small Speculators, "The Players" of Large Funds, "The Players" of the Commercials, and finally, the Video that talks about all of this en totum - The C.O.T. Report.

I go here, to "timing charts" to look at the C.O.T. Report each week. I like to look at the COT report from a two year time basis.

The trick with entrances, chart patterns, and technical tools? Is learning that those tools help you find low risk, high reward situations on the chart. But they cannot give you an 'edge', or 'bias' in the market, that you can message. They cannot give you, what some people term "positive expectancy".

I'll have more on the COT report on Monday, when I will discuss that this report has much to say for every type of trader. For stock, forex, commodity futures and index traders.

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Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 13 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

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