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Thursday, July 16, 2009

The Federal Reserve: Why Listen to a Middle Man? (And Profitable Bad Trades) (VIDEO)

"Don't be buffaloed by experts and elites. Experts often possess more data than judgment. Elites can become so inbred that they produce haemophiliacs who bleed to death as soon as they are nicked by the real world." - Colin Powell

You see it everywhere you turn. When you watch videos. When you listen to the news anchors on the television set. When you read a news article.

"The Federal Reserve reported that ..."

"The Federal Reserve reports that ..."

"The Federal Reserve has gone on record to say"

And then the blogger, news anchor or pundit then goes on to say what that "means". Or some analyst wants to put together a report as to what that "means".

Huh?

Some of the best advice I've received throughout my life? Is to go look at the data for yourself.

For example. I am a student of the Bible. I mean, the actual construction of the document. It's a science called 'textual criticism'. Now, while getting other textual critics and scholars thoughts regarding various papyri, vellum and manuscripts is interesting, and provides me with a different point of view? Why wouldn't I just go examine the papyri, the vellum and the manuscripts at universities for myself? Why wouldn't I have my own facsimile copies of all of ancient scrolls and parchments?

I discuss this phenomenon, as well as "bad trades with profits" in the following vlog entry ...

(Video Included. If you're seeing this entry elsewhere and cannot see the Video? Click here to view the entry ...)



I ask people all the time:

"We live in the information age. All of the data is available to you. So why are you coming to me, with data from a middle man?"

So I'm going to help ones out, as well as follow my own advice as I am a blogger. Here is a link to the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting that was released yesterday. There are not only the interesting nuggets there, that I mentioned in the above video? But I also believe that there is a BOMBSHELL in the opening statements. Read the data for yourself, that the Federal Reserve supplies to everyone on a very public website. Start reading the Fed papers ... for yourself. There's a lot of data in there that could make for some very challenging discussions, rather than talking about what 'this guys reports', or 'that analyst says'.

I examine the data and numbers for myself. It's probably why, throughout this crisis? I really have yet to be wrong.

About anything.

And mind you? I'm the guy that doesn't like to get into the habit of prediction. Prediction, at least for humans, is an absolute impossibility. I just read the data in front of me.

* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 13 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

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