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Tuesday, August 11, 2009

State of the Economy: Scenario #1 - Recovery (VIDEO)

"My major hobby is teasing people who take themselves and the quality of their knowledge too seriously and those who don’t have the guts to sometimes say: 'I don’t know...." - Nassim Taleb

I have had a series going for over a week, in which I discuss my outlook for the economy. I have developed and look at four possible scenarios occuring within the next few months. This is the first possible (and I do stress, possible) one of those scenarios ...

I discuss that scenario in the following entry ...

(Video Included. If you're seeing this entry elsewhere and cannot see the Video? Click here to view the entry ...)



What we are concerned with as investors, at some point, is the "truth in price" moment that I discussed, and discovering when that time has been reached. Economically, everything begins to head forward from that point. Despite corruption. Despite horrendous economic conditions.

There's comes a point, where you have to recognize that although you have a long road to travel and there are many challenging obstacles in your way? You've already begun to walk.

In 1937, suicides were higher than they were in 1929. People were giving up to despair at an alarming rate. But in 1933? The 'truth in price' moment had been reached, and the economy was always trying to recover from that point forward.

The biggest thing to look at, is an actual IMPROVEMENT (not slowling, an improvement) in the unemployment rate.

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Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 13 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

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