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Wednesday, August 5, 2009

State of the Economy: Three Scenarios (and Comments Regarding Lifestyle of Traders)

"The general who wins a battle makes many calculations in his temple ere the battle is fought. The general who loses a battle makes but few calculations beforehand. Thus do many calculations lead to victory, and few calculations to defeat: how much more no calculation at all! It is by attention to this point that I can foresee who is likely to win or lose." - Sun Tzu - The Art of War

When you talk about arriving at a conclusion based on a differential mathematical subset (economics) - you are dealing with variables that you can't control.

Uhhh. Ok Dan. What does that mean?

It means that in essence, the variables that make up this 'math problem' of what will occur within the economy? Are constantly changing. This is another reason why I state that is silly to try to 'predict' the market. The variables are known. They are things like; the governments actions or inaction, the media's 'spin' on what occurs, and the basic economic flow of capital within the markets. But those factors all interrelate to one another, and change, based on each others action.

Well, we already discussed that the mainstream media (and to some extent, new media) can affect the psychological aspect of consumer confidence. We also discussed the conflicting 'elements' of 'where we now stand'.

I mentioned in my last blog entry that there are various scenarios that I have my eye on, in this crazy, toppsy tuvy economy that we find ourselves in. I discuss that in the following entry ...

(Video Included. If you're seeing this entry elsewhere and cannot see the Video? Click here to view the entry ...)

Here is the link to David Warings YouTube Vlog Channel, and here is the link to his Blog at the Informed Trades community.

( Psst! Bug him to start the videos back up! :) )

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Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 13 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

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