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Tuesday, March 31, 2009

The Low Funded Challenge Account Project: April 2009 and Slush Fund (VIDEO)

Last Month (March 2009) - Challenge Project Balances:

Investing Account Balance: $410.00 (Average)
Stock / Futures Trading Balance: $1,201.12
Online Savings Balance: $153.75

The original video explanation of the Challenge Project is to be found here.

A video summary of my decisions for this month is to be found at the end of this blog entry.

Back in October of 2007, I created sub-accounts from my main brokerages; as a main feature to this blog, and in November of 2007, I began the Challenge Project. Their purpose, as well as the purpose of many of the articles in this blog, is to assist the low-funded trader understand what principles he needs to consider when trying to get started in the markets, or if starting up again because his or her account account has been wiped out. These are actual sub-accounts at my brokerages that I own, and I will look to for growth. I will announce actual trades and investments that I perform in them, and the money management rationals and reasons for my decisions as a means to educate others. I wish to demonstrate that as long as one enters this business with the proper principles, strategy, education and emotional discipline in hand, you can 'make it' in this business.

In the beginning of this experiment, I placed $130.00 with Sharebuilder as a long-term investment account, and I placed $370.00 in the account for trading Futures options. I later added a small ING Savings account that has been built up to a balance of $153.51. Due to the initial investment, I once termed this the "$500 Challenge". Since we now have much more in these accounts than $500 at the end of February, I will term this the "Low-Funded Challenge Project" instead of the "$500 Challenge". At times I will refer to them simply as the "Challenge Project" accounts.

I also had three rules for the "Challenge Project" accounts. At the beginning of each month, I review and consider where we stand, and how those three rules impact the current months decisions. So let's do that for March of 2009.

Rules for the Challenge Account:

1) The initial investment is $500.00, to be split amongst the accounts. After creating the accounts in October of 2007, we had our initial deposited transferred in November of 2007. $130 went to Sharebuilder for longer term investments, and $370 went to the Xpresstrade brokerage for futures options purchases. Xpresstrade was later bought out by "optionsXpress", therefore this is now the optionsXpress account. This account is the 'trading' account, for stocks, ETF's, and futures options. Therefore, rule #1 is always complete.

2) Each month, I can contribute $100.00, that can be split amongst the accounts however I choose. In other words, I can send $30.00 to Sharebuilder, $70.00 to optionsXpress; or $100.00 to optionsXpress, and nothing to Sharebuilder, etc. Last month we deposited the entire $100.00 to the Trading account.

For April 2009's deposits, I decided to send $10.00 to the Investing Account, $60.00 to the Trading Account and $30.00 to the Savings Account. I also transferred $150.00 from the Savings Account, to the Trading Account, using the Savings Account as a type of slush fund.

3) I'll be using regular investment and trade vehicles. Bonds. Stocks. ETF's. Futures Options. I want to wait and bump up the equity, so I will only take a trade if it looks like a very high probability trade. And trust you-me, I'll let you know if something like that arises.

Now I'll explain my ideas and rationale, in the following vlog entry...

(Video Included. If you're seeing this entry elsewhere and cannot play the video? Click this link to go to the exact blogged vlog entry ...)



April 2009 Balances after Deposit from Rule #2

Investing Account Balance: $420.00 (This will fluctuate with the BAC, JNJ and KO stock, as well as dividends paid)
Stock / Futures Trading Balance: $1,411.12
Online Savings Balance: $33.75

* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 13 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Update: Ventrilo Voice Server

I went to my host servers site this morning. Here's an update:

Good evening,

We hope your day has gone better than ours. We realize there are major problems at the moment with a handful of Ventrilo systems, as well as the obvious absence of our main website and systems. We are resolving them as quickly as we possibly can, and have all of our staff working overtime until that happens. We are still here. We are not going out of business. We did not all move to Sealand. If you require assistance, your best bet will be #DarkStarLLC on the gamesurge.net IRC network until our systems are restored. Please understand that our staff are extremely overwhelmed right now as a result of today's problems and may be very slow to respond - we are still here and we definitely care about getting your service restored.

Thank you for your patience.

Also, for those of you browsing the World of Warcraft forums, please recognize that zomghealz is indeed a staff member of ours. We're doing our best to get you guys back online ASAP!

Monday, March 30, 2009

Ventrilo Outage

There seems to be some sort of outage with my host provider (Darkstar LLC), so the Ventrilo voice server is down. I'll update you with information as soon as I have it ...

I Have Become Death ... The Secretary of State

I honestly did mean to make it into the Ventrilo voice server today. I have a few seconds before I have to run back out the door, so I figure I'd post a little update.

Is there anything worse, than having to handle both Car Insurance matters, and Car Registration matters on the same day? Insurance offices and the Secretary of State (at least, it's the S.o.S in Michigan, in some places, I know it's the Department of Transportation). And God help you if you forget something, when going between one and then the other. On top of it, I still need a little more work done on my car, so I have to schedule an appointment with the mechanic (That pothole I hit just absolutely wrecked my suspension. Rear Sway Bar links need replaced)

Well, yeah, there's obviously many things that are worse, and I am speaking in a bit of hyperbole. But still.

So I should be out the door, as I'm figuring everything I have to get done, until about 5:30 pm est. It's the advantage and drawback of trading. We have the freedom to have entire days where we take care of such necessary business? But at the same time we love to trade, so we actually 'want' to be working (unlike most folks). Quite a little paradox ...

Sunday, March 29, 2009

Week in Review: There's Good News and There's Bad News (PODCAST)

"For most folks, no news is good news; for the press, good news is not news." - Gloria Borger

We discuss the cause of this stock market rally, as well as the ... well ... bad news that is still with us.

I think (and mind you, just think), that the current euphoria that exists in the marketplace is about to hit a very serious brick wall ...

(Podcast Included. If you're seeing this entry elsewhere and cannot play the podcast? Click this link to go to the exact podcast entry ...)



Click here to download this podcast.

* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 13 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Saturday, March 28, 2009

The Challenge Project and Scalping Realities with OJ (Guest starring Cisco in the background) (VIDEO)

"Experienced traders control risk, inexperienced traders chase gains." -Alan Farley

First of all, I would like to thank everyone for the kind comments, pm's and emails while I was sick.

WOW! I had forgotten just how nasty the flu can make your body feel. I won't gross you out too badly here, but I was a watery, gooy, achey mess! Thankfully, all of that's passed, and I'm only left with the sinus congestion. But that's just part of living in the humidity and changing seasons that is Michigan.

Regardless! So onto day trading! I think people know by now that although I can day trade, and every once in a while I do have a day trade? Day trading just isn't me. But I know there are people out there that do want to learn to day trade, so I figured that I would illustrate how it's done.

The other concern that I had about demonstrating daytrading that I mention in the introduction of this vlog, and what I'm trying to say there? Is that everyone understand that ... "yes, your accuracy rate has to improve, but please, for the love of god, that doesn't mean you can still fall for the accuracy overhype." Don't forget the other money management principles!!!

(Video Included. If you're seeing this entry elsewhere and cannot see the Video? Click this link to view the entry ...)



In the next 48 hours, I'll have a "Week in Review" Podcast out there. I'll try to have it done by Saturday afternoon. I have a bit to say on that route ...

(Don't I always?)

* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 13 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Sick Day ...

Ugh.

Sorry.

No "Wednesday Recap Podcast".

Just sick as a dog, and a headache that won't stop ...

Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Compensation and the Dangers of having the Mob Rule Private Business (VIDEO)

"There are no wise few. Every aristocracy that has ever existed has behaved, in all essential points, exactly like a small mob." - G. K. Chesterton

Here is my thoughts regarding compensation and A.I.G. and as a shareholder, as well as some other trading thoughts.

(Video Included. If you're seeing this entry elsewhere and cannot see the Video? Click this link to view the entry ...)



Here's the link to the entry where I discussed what some have termed "The New Robber Barons"

* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 13 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Friday, March 20, 2009

Battlestar Galactica Predictions ...

Ok, why not? It's not related to investing or trading, but here are my predictions for Battlestar Galactica's series finale soon to air. If you're thinking of getting into the series? You'll want to skip what follows ...

Some of the theories conflict, but here are my thoughts:
  • Kara "Starbuck" Thrace is the daughter of one of the Lords of Kobol. It is one of the Lords of Kobol who has been appearing to her. Both as the "Leoben" who guided her to her death, her father who taught her the song that awoke the Final Five Cyclons, and the pianist who appeared to her in Joe's bar. And I wouldn't be surprised to find out that this "Lord of Kobol" was the original inventor of ressurection technology.
  • It is that same "Lord of Kobol" who the Cylons believe to be the "god", and has been orchaestrating so many of the events that has been directing both Cylons and Humans. It is the "Lord of Kobol" that led the original revolt on Kobol from the other Lords of Kobol.
  • William Adama may die.
  • The Human race will 'effectively die'. The Galactica "will" die.
  • The Cylon race will 'effectively die'.
  • The Human race and Cylon race, led by Gaius Baltar will combine into a new Hybrid race that will survive into the future.
  • They will find "our earth". The "earth" that they discovered was not "our" earth. You never saw what you saw at the end of season 3. You never saw the continents. You never saw Jupiter, or our moon. It was never definitively "our earth". Just "a" earth.
  • The will not find any planet to live on, but will continue searching for "our earth".
Let's see what happens. Either way? I'm going to buy myself one of the SciFi channels toasters.

It's been a fantastic series, and I'm sitting down with beer, and a big bag of chips to see her off ...

Catching Up on My Reading: Fed Papers

At Matt "Mr. Fed" Dubuque's direction, I've been taking a closer look at Fed statements. Today? I took the day, and have been catching up on reading the papers from the Fed that I've been putting off for far too long.

This particular statement jumped out at me:

"First, a stable market place needs to be established for the currently illiquid assets sitting on the balance sheets of financial institutions. Until those assets can be adequately valued and losses absorbed and future losses staunched, financial firms are going to have a difficult time raising capital and extending new loans" - Thomas M. Hoenig, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas

A-freaking-men to that.

By my reckoning, it is now at least 'Day 518', since it has become obvious we need a Fixed Income CDO Exchange with standardized accounting and contract rules

Week in Review: Using A Paintgun, to try to Create the Mona Lisa: Quantitative Easing (With Clearly, What is a Jumpy Market) (VIDEO)

"A trader is an economist who puts his money where his mouth is" - Myself

Welcome to an early week in review. I discuss the Fed annoucements, some of my thoughts regarding "the reinflation trade" by looking at DXM9 (The U.S. Dollar Index) and my own money management losses.

(Video Included. If you're seeing this entry elsewhere and cannot see the Video? Click this link to view the entry ...)



Here's a chart of DXM9 (June Contract of the U.S. Dollar)

(Click to Enlarge)


* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 13 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Wednesday Recap Podcast: Market and Trader Psychology (PODCAST)

"The safest way to double your money is to fold it over once and put it in your pocket." - Kin Hubbard

Welcome to the Wednesday Recap Podast.

I discuss the "near" Cocoa trade in a little more depth. The Daily Blog will contain a picture of the chart, showing you my exact thought. I finish up with a discussion on trader psychology.

(Podcast Included. If you're seeing this entry elsewhere and cannot play the podcast? Click this link to go to the exact podcast entry ...)



Here is a chart of CCK9 on the 10 minute chart:

(Click on the image to Enlarge)

Just a continuation of "dealing with what 'is'"

Click here to download this podcast.

It is now at least 'Day 516', since it has become obvious we need a Fixed Income CDO Exchange with standardized accounting and contract rules

* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 13 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Trader Thoughts (And Frustrations) on March 17, 2009 (VIDEO)

"I measure what's going on, and I adapt to it. I try to get my ego out of the way. The market is smarter than I am so I bend." - Martin Zweig

Yesterday I had a "Trader Thoughts" Podcast? Today I have a "Trader Thoughts" vlog ...

(Video Included. If you're seeing this entry elsewhere and cannot see the Video? Click this link to view the entry ...)



* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 13 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Monday, March 16, 2009

Monday Trader Thoughts for March 16, 2009 (PODCAST)

"When the number of factors coming into play in a phenomenological complex is too large scientific method in most cases fails. One need only think of the weather, in which case the prediction even for a few days ahead is impossible." - Albert Einstein

This Monday? My Podcast is going to jump all over the place. Sorta. There are two main points.

I talk about money management, and demonstrate how I review my own trades, and the value of reviewing your trades. I discuss the "Jon Stewart vs. Cramer" sillines, tying this to the silliness of trying to "predict" anything.

(Podcast Included. If you're seeing this entry elsewhere and cannot play the podcast? Click this link to go to the exact podcast entry ...)



As I've often said, I leave the predictions to God. I'm a trader. I deal with 'what is'.

Click here to download this podcast.

It is now at least 'Day 514', since it has become obvious we need a Fixed Income CDO Exchange with standardized accounting and contract rules

* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 13 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Please Tell M e Honestly That You Haven't Thought It ...

Try and tell me that you haven't imagined doing this to Bernard Madoff

Sunday, March 15, 2009

Internet Problems. No "Week in Review"

I apologize that there was no week in Review. I'm experiencing problems trying to connect to the internet. I think my Modem is starting to lose it. I'm patching things together as we speak.

So I apologize that I did not have an opportunity to have a "Week in Review" Podcast.

Friday, March 13, 2009

Money Management (Series): Trading for Income

"The worst crime against working people is a company which fails to operate at a profit" - Samuel Gompers

The reason we trade, is to make money.

The reason we make money, is to have an income.

So what are reasonable expectations when it comes to trading? What sort of income can you expect? What should you remember when you hear that a trader had a $2500 trade? How much money should you take home to live on?

I offer my experience and thoughts on the subject, in the following vlog which will be included in my "Money Management Playlist" ...

(Video Included. If you're seeing this entry elsewhere and cannot see the Video? Click this link to view the entry ...)



* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 13 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Share

Thursday, March 12, 2009

Japan Within An Economic Depression

From Bloomberg:

"Japan’s economy contracted at the fastest pace since 1974 last quarter as exports, output and business spending collapsed.

Gross domestic product shrank an annualized 12.1 percent in the three months ended Dec. 31, less than the 12.7 percent reported last month
"

Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Wednesday Recap: The Frightened Dog Syndrome (PODCAST)

"A good scapegoat is nearly as welcome as a solution to the problem"


Welcome to the ‘tardy’ Wednesday Recap Podcast.

I’ve had a few people ask me about the discussion regarding the uptick rule. I discuss this, as well as the recent rally, and thoughts on the problems facing the economy.

(Podcast Included. If you're seeing this entry elsewhere and cannot play the podcast? Click this link to go to the exact podcast entry ...)



Click here to download this podcast.

Here's the link to Matt's (Mr. Fed or Crashof2008) YouTube Channel.

It is now at least 'day 509', since it has become obvious we need a Fixed Income CDO Exchange with standardized accounting and contract rules

* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 13 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Tuesday, March 10, 2009

Just a Little Goodie I Ran Across (VIDEO)

I know there are a few Star Trek Fans among us.

I HIGHLY Recommend watching the new trailer, that was just released. It's longer, and may lift your spirits. If you want to watch it in HD, I would recommend letting the entire video load in before playing it ...

(Video Included. If you are viewing this entry and not on my daily blog, click here to go directly to the entry ...)




I think they just may have managed to create a movie worth watching here ...

Oh, and I still have to change the header, but what do you think of the new blog look?

How to Begin with Investing and Trading (Series): Implementation Outline (VIDEO)

"Wisdom is knowing what to do next, skill is knowing how to do it, and virtue is doing it." - David Starr Jordan

The question I receive more than any other, bar none - is . . . How do I begin in the markets? I mention this video is in regards to the stock market or futures account. But the principles apply to the Forex, to day trading, commodity futures options ... whatever. Ok. In the first few videos, I discussed both my story as to how I got started with the career of trading back in 1996. Then we discussed what you need to learn with the next video.

Now, HOW TO BEGIN? How do you begin in this business? What do you do, to take that knowledge, and apply it?

I offer my experience and thoughts on the subject, in the following vlog . . .

(Video Included. If you're seeing this entry elsewhere and cannot see the Video? Click here to view the entry ...)



Here is the blip.tv version of the above video.

It is now at least 'day 508', since it has become obvious we need a Fixed Income CDO Exchange with standardized accounting and contract rules.

* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 13 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Monday, March 9, 2009

How to Begin with Investing and Trading (Series): Educational Roadmap (VIDEO)

"An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you know and what you don't." - Anatole France

The question I receive more than any other, bar none - is . . . How do I begin in the markets? I mention this video is in regards to the stock market or futures account. But the principles apply to the Forex, to day trading, commodity futures options ... whatever. Ok. In the first video, I started talking about my story, and how I started off with trading back in 1996. I finished that little story in the last video.

Now, HOW TO BEGIN? How do you begin in this business?

Education. I discuss the 'roadmap' for that, in this video . . .

(Video Included. If you're seeing this entry elsewhere and cannot see the Video? Click here to view the entry ...)




It is now day 507, since it has become obvious we need a Fixed Income CDO Exchange with standardized accounting and contract rules. Far too late in my opinion.

This series continues with the next entry, in which I discuss the implementation of the education that one takes in ...

* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 13 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Saturday, March 7, 2009

Week in Review: The Depression of 2009 (Podcast)

"The Daily Outlook it's so bleak ... Saving every dollar of every week" - Dropkick Murphys "Tomorrows Industry" from the album 'The Meanest of Times'


It is now, as I figure it, day 505 since it has become completely obvious that the CDO derivatives need standardized (as was done with commodities), and put on a transparent exchange.

I’ve been right thusfar I hope (and pray) I am wrong about this one. But I see a new Depression as unavoidable.

I used to hear comments that the derivatives no-show hole was at least 45 trillion large. I found that difficult to believe. Why? Because trust was still within the system. That trust is fast disappearing. Since the proper steps have not been taken? I have no choice but to believe that the hole really is that big, and that’s why they don’t wish to create a CDO derivative exchange (and hopefully regulate, or get rid of the CDS's completely)

(Podcast Included. If you're seeing this entry elsewhere and cannot play the podcast? Click this link to go to the exact podcast entry ...)



Click here to download this podcast.

* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 13 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Friday, March 6, 2009

We Need a New CDO Derivatives Exchange: 504 Days and Counting (And No Blog TV Show for today)

I was just sitting here thinking. How long has it been since it became apparent that we need a CDO Exchange with proper regulation? I'm figuring about 504 days. My math might be off. But I'm figuring that's how long it's been since it's become obvious the problem was going to start feeding itself. How long will it be until that exchange shows up? To where we can properly value these derivatives values (you may hear the term 'toxic assets') on a day to day basis. I thought the name of the game was supposed to be 'transparency'. I should start running a little 'counter' here on the daily blog regarding that need. Something that counts the days. Because I'm getting to the point that I truly believe we won't see the end of the nonsense until we at least have the news such an exchange is on the way.

I have a lot of running around to do this morning, and also this evening, so I won't be having a Blog TV Show this evening. Just a few things have come up that I really do have to take care of. I'm also going to try to have a 'remake' vlog entry up today - for the "How to Begin" series.

However, don't forget about the Ventrilo voice server. There is a link above the text entries, that will take you to the instructions for connecting to that server.

Thursday, March 5, 2009

Mortgage Delinquencies Rise

So, the big news across CNBC this morning is that ... Oh my God! Mortgage Delinquencies are rising dramatically!

Dear lord. What do they expect when they announce to the entire economy: "Hey, you can refinance your mortgage for a lower rate. But ... only if you're behind in your mortgage payments"

This is so surreal. I've known this is coming, and yet ... to watch it happen? It's just ... surreal. It's like living inside a Dali painting.

When will it be time to invest your money? I'll tell you what I'm waiting for, and when I will be excited to take my hard earned cash and invest it in wealth producing corporations. As soon as I hear:

"We are going to take a billion dollars, and create a derivatives exchange for any sort of derivative, that is not currently tracked, day by day, on an exchange. Packaged up debt obligations? They must now adhere to new accounting regulations and be tracked, every single day, on an exchange where their value can be traded, or bought and delivered by anyone that is adequately funded. Anyone who currently holds a CDO or other debt derivative, has eight months to de-leverage according to the new accounting standards.

Oh, and by the way? Everyone that currently has a mortgage now has a 4.5% rate on their mortgage. Congratulations. Everyone else? Well, you get the best rate you can find, you're on your own. Banks start screaming about price fixing the rate? Well ... guess you guys shouldn't have been overleveraged huh?

Oh, and as an added little cookie? From this day forward? Any financial instrument that is invented, or can be devised of any type, anywhere that is either bought or sold, OTC or not? 11:1 leverage. Anything greater than that will result in a penalty of ..."


Well, I'll leave that last part to the retributive and imaginative minds of the readers.

In that case, Dan will then move from "trader" mindset, to "investor" mindset. Of course, there are a lot of other issues that would have to be worked through for an 'economic bottom'. But god knows my optimism would rise dramatically ...

Wednesday, March 4, 2009

Wednesday Recap: Round and Round We Go ...

"Every why hath a wherefore." - "A Comedy of Errors", William Shakespeare


Hmmm.

Well ... it seems that my podcasting host site (Podbean) suddenly has a problem with the sample rate as it is produced by my Audacity recording software. After about 3 hours of messing with it, I decided to press on with a text entry. So here I am with a short "recap" of the week thusfar.

Did anyone else happen to catch the Congressional Q&A with Benjamin Bernake this week? I hope the inflationists were paying attention. Chairman Bernake's statements regarding the possibility of inflation 'down the road' (as I hear many of the inflationists saying now), was met with a very brief, very succinct, and very clear statement.

I'm paraphrasing here, but it was something along the lines of:

" ... of course, in any case where inflation would begin to appear, we would raise interest rates."

There it is folks. Even in the current environment? The Federal Reserve would have no problems raising the interest rate to curb inflation if they felt it was getting out of control. Of course, some 'target inflation' is acceptable, and even desired. But if anyone truly believes that if they are faced with the choice of ... a) leave the interest rate alone, and allow "hyperinflation" to come about - in effect - destroying the future of the Federal Reserve, or b) choosing further deflation by raising the interest rates and ensuring the future of the Federal Reserve? I mean come on. They would raise the interest rates. I'm personally wondering when the 'hyperinflationists' will admit defeat. At what point?

Personally, I found the whole thing rather comedic. Members of Congress were asking him questions that had ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to do with the Fed. Healthcare? Are they serious? It's as if they didn't even know what the Fed's job is, and what they themselves had made themselves responsible for. All Chairman Bernake could do is look back at them, blink, and state: "Well, that's not really under the pervue of the Fed. That's a legislative matter." But it's as if they weren't hearing him, and would ask him basic questions regarding economics.

As for myself? I've been having a fun time in the Ventrilo Voice Chat Server with everyone. I had a 'so-so' trade on Monday for about $506.00 profit. Mike has been tearing it up lately with day-trading the Euro Forex futures. It's pretty nice to have a 'trading venue' to talk shop when you're doing nothing but stare at an OJ trade that just refuses to move one way or the other.

As far as the stock market? Well ... we'll see. A one day rally does not a bottom make'. It's one day. Let's see the process unfold. Anything can happen in the future. Anything at all. What if we have a relief rally that is purely technical in nature, and the market 'mob psychology' begins to hone in on the infrastructure improvements from the Economic Recovery attempt by the current administration? A relief rally, in such a case, could turn into a bottom. Especially if someone grew a brain, and decided to organize a transparent exchange for the OTC, CDO Derivatives market.

Or at the same time? We could have more of the same. It's wait and see.

As for myself? I just want O.J. to move one way or the other ... There is nothing more infuriating than getting into a trade, and watching the market close, right where it opened up at earlier.

* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 13 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Podcasting

I seem to be having difficulties with my host site, and the sample rate ...

I'll try to get the podcast up by tonight ...

Tuesday, March 3, 2009

Ventrilo Times

Heyya all!

I'm glad everyone is having a good time with the Ventrilo Voice Chat Server.

Just wanted to let you know that this week, I'll probably be out of the server in the early afternoon to evenings. I know this is when many people get home from work, but with the car problems lately? I've been running errands, starting in the last hours before market close, to a little later in the evening.

Mike (Zaner) keeps later hours however. He liked to trade the Euro futures market (Has had a nice couple of days too). Hopefully, I can clear out some evenings, mark some items off the 'to-do' list, and have some available time in the evenings for "Market Buzz"

:)

Also, if you take note, at the bottom right of this blog page? In that right hand column? There's a little widget that shows you who is in the Ventrilo voice server at any one time.

Airelon's Investing and Trading Thoughts: March 2009 (Recession to Depression)

Challenge Project Accounts:

Investing Account Balance: $358.72
Stock / Futures Trading Balance: $1,174.62
Online Savings Balance: $153.75


Here it is. My "outlook" vlog entry for the month.

Near the beginning of every month, I have an "outlook" entry in which I discuss what I have my eye on for the upcoming month. So here are my thoughts, as they stand today ...

(Video Included. If you're seeing this entry elsewhere and cannot see the Video? Click this link to view the entry ...)



* * *


Challenge Project Accounts:

Investing Account Balance: $358.72
Stock / Futures Trading Balance: $1,174.62
Online Savings Balance: $153.75

NOTE: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 13 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Monday, March 2, 2009

The Low Funded Challenge Account Project: March 2009

Last Month (February 2009) - Challenge Project Balances:

Investing Account Balance: $370.00 (Average)
Stock / Futures Trading Balance: $1,074.62
Online Savings Balance: $153.51

The original video explanation of the Challenge Project is to be found here.

A video summary of my decisions for this month is to be found at the end of this blog entry.

Back in October of 2007, I created sub-accounts from my main brokerages; as a main feature to this blog, and in November of 2007, I began the Challenge Project. Their purpose, as well as the purpose of many of the articles in this blog, is to assist the low-funded trader understand what principles he needs to consider when trying to get started in the markets, or if starting up again because his or her account account has been wiped out. These are actual sub-accounts at my brokerages that I own, and I will look to for growth. I will announce actual trades and investments that I perform in them, and the money management rationals and reasons for my decisions as a means to educate others. I wish to demonstrate that as long as one enters this business with the proper principles, strategy, education and emotional discipline in hand, you can 'make it' in this business.

In the beginning of this experiment, I placed $130.00 with Sharebuilder as a long-term investment account, and I placed $370.00 in the account for trading Futures options. I later added a small ING Savings account that has been built up to a balance of $153.51. Due to the initial investment, I once termed this the "$500 Challenge". Since we now have much more in these accounts than $500 at the end of February, I will term this the "Low-Funded Challenge Project" instead of the "$500 Challenge". At times I will refer to them simply as the "Challenge Project" accounts.

I also had three rules for the "Challenge Project" accounts. At the beginning of each month, I review and consider where we stand, and how those three rules impact the current months decisions. So let's do that for March of 2009.

Rules for the Challenge Account:

1) The initial investment is $500.00, to be split amongst the accounts. After creating the accounts in October of 2007, we had our initial deposited transferred in November of 2007. $130 went to Sharebuilder for longer term investments, and $370 went to the Xpresstrade brokerage for futures options purchases. Xpresstrade was later bought out by "optionsXpress", therefore this is now the optionsXpress account. This account is the 'trading' account, for stocks, ETF's, and futures options. Therefore, rule #1 is always complete.

2) Each month, I can contribute $100.00, that can be split amongst the accounts however I choose. In other words, I can send $30.00 to Sharebuilder, $70.00 to optionsXpress; or $100.00 to optionsXpress, and nothing to Sharebuilder, etc. Last month we deposited $30.00 to the Savings Account, $10.00 to the Investing Account, and $60.00 to the Trading account.

For March 2009's deposits, I decided to send the entire $100.00 to the Trading Account.

I'm probably not going to be engaging in any trades for the Challenge project in March, as 1) The Account Balance is still very, very low, and therefore 2) the primary job is to get the account equity bumped up. In addition 3) Options are pretty expensive at the moment, and we cannot afford to "up" our risk per trade, simply because we're over the $1,100.00 level.

However, we are now over the $1,100.00 level, and that works out well. Why?

Well, look again to the growth strategy we've had all along. If you note my project strategy video (located here), for a long time, we were looking to get past the first step in this phase of the project. Thus, we were looking for the trading account to have an equity greater than $900.00. We've accomplished this, as we now have a balance of $1,174.62 at the beginning of March 2009? We're past that second 'phase'. I'd like a little more equity before taking on another trade, so we can comfortably stay within this range. The next goal is to get the account past $1,900.00.

Remember. The goal right is not to actively trade that account. It's to get the account equity balance bumped up. I want to say that again. The goal right now, isn't to primarily trade that account. It's to get the account equity balance bumped up. And as it is, that cash is becoming more and more valuable as the days go back, as deflation takes a hold of the entire economy.

3) I'll be using regular investment and trade vehicles. Bonds. Stocks. ETF's. Futures Options. I want to wait and bump up the equity, so I probably (probably) will not trade anything in the Challenge Trading account in March. Unless a good, $90.00 option comes along, with the right delta and theta. Just takes the right trade. It's interesting how fast those can develop.

We're cruising right along ...

(Video Included. If you're seeing this entry elsewhere and cannot play the video? Click this link to go to the exact blogged vlog entry ...)



March Balances after Deposit from Rule #2

Investing Account Balance: $370.00 (This will fluctuate with the BAC, JNJ and KO stock, as well as dividends paid)
Stock / Futures Trading Balance: $1,174.62
Online Savings Balance: $153.75

* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 13 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Sunday, March 1, 2009

Ventrilo "Market Buzz" Server Instructions

Ok guys, the Market Buzz Ventrilo server is now setup.

I am sorry, but due to the world we live in, this is an English / Russian speaking server only. I may allow Spanish as well, as I speak enough Spanish to get by, and we have other Spanish speaking people in the server. If any other language is spoken predominately, I will be forced to record the entire conversation. I know folks who speak Arabic, Chinese, Farsi, Czech, Turkish, Hebrew, Japanese and just about every other language you can think of, and will ask them to review the recording.

It sucks, but it's the world we live in, and I have a responsibility to know what is being said in the server that I provide.

Here's a step by step process of what you'll need, and how to install everything. If you're already familiar with Ventrilo, you can pretty much just jump down to the end of the instructions list for the IP, Port #, and password . . .

You can listen through just regular speakers. In order to talk, you'll need a headset, with a microphone.

If you don't already have it, you'll need to download the program "Ventrilo". It's free. Go to this page, and then download the version that says: Windows i386 32bit for Windows. If you have another OS, download the appropriate client program for that OS.

If you don't already have the program, go ahead and install what you just downloaded, by running the program.

Once Ventrilo is installed, and you run it, you'll see a spot where it says User Name: ___________________ ->

Ok, that little arrow on the right? Click on that arrow. Then hit the button that says "New" Enter your name.

You'll see another area that says "Server: ______________ ->"

Click on the little arrow. Then hit the button that says "New" and name the server "Market Buzz"

Here's the information you'll need:

Hostname of IP: v35.darkstarllc.com

Port: 9074
Password: You have to email me for the password @ dan.shy@gmail.com
That 0 is a zero, not an 'oh'

Edit: Please remember to set your microphone preferences before you connect.

1) Click on Setup

2) The first three boxes, "Enable outgoing voice communications", "Use Push to Talk Hotkey (PTT Mode)", and "Use Direct Input to detect Hotkey" are all selected.

3) Hotkey: Select what button on your keyboard you wish to have as your "push to talk" hotkey. I personally use the F10 button, because I do not use it for anything else. I set that to F10. Thus, when I talk in Ventrilo, I am pressing F10.

4) I'm usually in "The General Discussion Channel". If you'd like to make that the default channel for when you login? Just go to the area on the server setup that says: "Default Channel" and put in: The General Discussion Channel

4) Click on "Ok"

As well, when you connect, you'll see a "Chat" button. Go ahead and click the chat button that you see when you connect. Sometimes, rather than voice, we'll just type out something that we're thinking in the chat box. The "TTS" option will pronounce whatever we type out.

Click "connect" and wala!

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