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Sunday, November 29, 2009

Monday Challenge Project Summary: November 30, 2009

Previous $500 Challenge Project Balances:

"The Three Sisters":

Investing Account Balance: $747.59
Stock / Futures Trading Balance: $1,571.21
Savings Balance: $175.03
Total Challenge Project Funds: $2,493.83

I told you the Challenge Project wasn't really dead. :) The original video explanation of the Challenge Project that began with $500, is to be found here.

Rule No. 2 of the Challenge Project states that each month, we can divvy up $100.00 as we wish between the various challenge project accounts. Some time ago I stated that I may split up Rule No. 2, into weekly segments; or, $25.00 a week.

For this week, there is no weekly deposit, as this is the fifth monday of the month. We have already used rule no. two to it's full extent this month.

So let's summarize the Challenge Project here at the end of November.

Last week, I stated that there was still a lot of work to do with the "Investing Sister", of the Challenge Project. In addition, I also 'snuck' in a little comment, and mentioned something called ... VaR, or Value at Risk, and I stated that the VaR was 'till exceedingly high'. So what am I talking about? Well, let's try to break this down very simply.

Well, when traders or investors review my money management playlist, a question that I am often asked when they get to the video on "risk analysis"?

"Dan, do you mean you only risk 2% with all of your trades and investments combined? Or 2% per investment?"

I always tell them that I mean 2% per trade or per investment. In other words, if I'm looking at going long Sugar, and Long Cocoa? Then there is a 2% risk per trade for the long in Sugar, and a 2% risk for the long in Cocoa.

It's not very often that I have two trades on at the same time. I am a directional trader to some extent, and I stay pretty focused on my trades. I mean, when it comes to multiple trades? It happens. Occasionally. However, the "investing sister"? That has multiple investments by it's very nature.

Put very simply, the Value at Risk measures the total risk of an account, at any one time. It depends on the investing environment, as to how you want your VaR allocated. When times are good? It's not unusual to have a very high VaR. I remember two or three years ago, hearing financial advisers repeat the refain: "You never want to be majority cash. Only have about 8% cash available".

Funny how you don't hear that any longer eh?

This is why I made the statement last week ...

"So cash deposits will continue with the Investing account for some time, even after we have covered the reserve needed for future Dollar Cost Averaging ..."

Because I decided very early in this recession that for my own investing, that it would be good to be majority cash, even in the investing account, or about 90% cash, leaving only about 10% of assets VaR. At the current time, we have some cash in the "Investing Sister", and in essence, we also have our reserve for Dollar Cost Averaging our positions. Thus my comment "We still have a lot of work to do for the "investing sister"

And at the same time, moving forward? We will continue our contributions towards the trading account, and the interest bearing account.

Remember, the DRIP Dividend ReInvestment Plan for McDonalds is OFF

Here are the new balances for each of the Challenge Project, after this weeks deposit ...

Challenge Project Balances After Rule No. 2 Deposit:

Investing Account Balance: $743.30
(YTD cash and equity up about 53.2% Return is about 2.78%)
  • 4.1377 shares of KO (DRIP on)
  • 3.0546 shares of JNJ (DRIP on)
  • 2 shares of MCD (DRIP if now OFF)
  • Cash: $187.41
-$60.00 of this cash I reserve to D.C.A. KO
-$60.00 of this cash I reserve to D.C.A. JNJ
-$80.00 of this cash I reserve to D.C.A. MCD
-This leaves a -$12.59 shortfall for D.C.A. cash
  • Additional $43.00 available from slush fund
Investing Account Balance Since Inception
(Can be Enlarged):


Stock / Futures Trading Balance: $1,571.21
(YTD cash equity up about 55.0%. Return on Capital is about 2%)
  • 3% risk tolerance gives us $47.13 to risk per trade
  • Additional $43.00 available from slush fund
Trading Account Balance Since Inception:
(Can Be Enlarged)


Savings Balance:
$175.30
(YTD cash equity up about 42.5%. Return on Capital is recently about 0.40%)
  • $43.00 for a Slush fund / Drawdown Kill Switch fund
  • $89.30 for a Base Savings
  • $43.00 for Emergency Savings
Savings Account Balance Since Inception:
(Can Be Enlarged)

We'll be back to the Challenge Project, with a continuation of rule no. two, next Monday.

* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have over 13 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Saturday, November 28, 2009

Week in Review: Dubai and Wealth (PODCAST)

"Wealth is the product of man's capacity to think." - Ayn Rand

Welcome to the Week in Review!

Dubai! Dubai defaults! The world is ending! The stock market is crashing!

Or ... not ...

(Podcast Included. If you're seeing this entry elsewhere and cannot play the podcast? Click this link to go to the exact podcast entry ...)



Click here to Download this Podcast.

Here is the link to the first video and free description by Sal of the Khan Academy, of "Wealth Destruction". Here is the link to the second video ...

* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have over 13 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

The Death of the Challenge Project (PODCAST AND VIDEO)

"What we need, is liquidity in the market of 'accurate knowledge'" - Personal Axiom

What do I mean by 'the death of the challenge project'?

Well, an issue has arisen that has struck at an issue that is near and dear to my heart. The small investor. The small retail trader? Those folks are very near and dear to my heart. And I don't want to get into the politics of the situation. I just want to talk about the true, real issue, without any propaganda or bias ...

Which I discuss within the following podcast ...

(Podcast Included. If you're seeing this entry elsewhere and cannot play the podcast? Click this link to go to the exact podcast entry ...)




Click here to download this Podcast.

Here is the link to Mr. Eb's post ...

Here is a re-post of the video I had some time ago "The Origins of the Philosophy Behind the Challenge Project"



I swear ... it's like we're arriving at a "Seldon Crisis"

* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have over 13 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Monday, November 23, 2009

Monday Challenge Project Summary: November 23, 2009

Previous Challenge Project Balances:

Investing Account Balance: $710.82
Stock / Futures Trading Balance: $1,571.21
Savings Balance: $175.03
Total Challenge Project Funds: $2,457.06

Please note there is a second blog entry today that gives you the link to a free look at issue #1 of "Airelon's Market Tactics" and a repost of the Happy Hour show on Friday ...

The original video explanation of the Challenge Project that began with $500, is to be found here.

Rule No. 2 of the Challenge Project states that each month, we can divvy up $100.00 as we wish between the various challenge project accounts. Some time ago I stated that I may split up Rule No. 2, into weekly segments; or, $25.00 a week.

For this week, the $25.00 weekly deposit is being transferred to the Challenge Project INVESTING Account.

We have almost completed our Investing Account "maintenance". However, at the same time, our VaR (Value at Risk) is still exceedingly high. So cash deposits will continue with the Investing account for some time, even after we have covered the reserve needed for future Dollar Cost Averaging ...

It's a light week, with the approach of the observance of Thanksgiving in the United States markets. Volume typically becomes light, and trading usually turns choppy; so I really can't imagine any action will be taken this week with the Challenge account.

Remember, the DRIP Dividend ReInvestment Plan for McDonalds is OFF

Here are the new balances for each of the Challenge Project, after this weeks deposit ...

Challenge Project Balances After Rule No. 2 Deposit:

Investing Account Balance: $747.59
(YTD cash and equity up about 53% Return is about 3.57%)
  • 4.1377 shares of KO (DRIP on)
  • 3.0546 shares of JNJ (DRIP on)
  • 2 shares of MCD (DRIP if now OFF)
  • Cash: $187.41
-$60.00 of this cash I reserve to D.C.A. KO
-$60.00 of this cash I reserve to D.C.A. JNJ
-$80.00 of this cash I reserve to D.C.A. MCD
-This leaves a -$12.59 shortfall for D.C.A. cash
  • Additional $43.00 available from slush fund
Investing Account Balance Since Inception
(Can be Enlarged):


Stock / Futures Trading Balance: $1,571.21
(YTD cash equity up about 55.0%. Return on Capital is about 2%)
  • 3% risk tolerance gives us $47.13 to risk per trade
  • Additional $43.00 available from slush fund
Trading Account Balance Since Inception:
(Can Be Enlarged)

Savings Balance: $175.30
(YTD cash equity up about 42.5%. Return on Capital is about 1.49%)
  • $43.00 for a Slush fund / Drawdown Kill Switch fund
  • $89.30 for a Base Savings
  • $43.00 for Emergency Savings
Savings Account Balance Since Inception:
(Can Be Enlarged)

We'll be back to the Challenge Project, next Monday.

* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have over 13 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Airelon's Market Tactics Issue #1 and the Happy Hour Show (VIDEOS AND LINK)

Note that there will be another blog entry today for the Challenge Project.

I also promised to post up the Happy Hour Show for those that missed it ...



Here it is folks, a free lunch. Follow this link for a free look at the first issue of "Airelon's Market Tactics" for everyone, and a look at "the three sisters". The reason I include this, is that I know a few blog readers had shown interest in "the three sisters". And as it's been three weeks since it's release and my included market outlook comments, I thought we'd give everyone a taste ...

Here's a bit of a peak, at one of the videos this week, that we had on the newsletter talking about the newsletters structure ...

(Video Included. If you're seeing this entry elsewhere and cannot see the Video? Click here to view the entry ...)



* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have over 13 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Saturday, November 21, 2009

Week in Review: Irrationality and "Smidiots" (PODCAST)

"Poetry involves the mysteries of the irrational perceived through rational words" - Vladimir Nabokov

Welcome to the Week in Review!

If you made the "Happy Hour Show", then I hope you had a fun time with us. If not? Well, after I left the "Happy Hour" show over at the Davian Letter, I was sort of "pumped" to talk about the markets, how they impact all of us, and comments regarding much of what I see occuring in the capital markets at the current time.

I'm a writer. And any good writer can see much in the way of irrationality. He expresses that irrationality at times, through the written word.

Thus, the quotation that you will find at the top of this entry.

And as you know, I am also a trader. Therefore, I seek irrationality in the markets, and how to profit through that irrationality through rational means. So let's talk about that, in the following podcast! Let's talk about the irrationality we see in the markets, with rational words ...

(Podcast Included. If you're seeing this entry elsewhere and cannot play the podcast? Click this link to go to the exact podcast entry ...)


Click here to Download this Podcast.

* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have over 13 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Freedom from being "Institutionalized" (VIDEO)

"While we are free to choose our actions, we are not free to choose the consequences of our actions." - Stephen R. Covey

Haven't had a video in a while eh?

Well, let me make up for it, with a rather long one here.

From time to time? I have "trader thoughts" topics, in which I discuss ideas central to the concept of the markets, trading, the economy, and how it affects all of us. And with the unemployment rate at 20% + real, and reported 10.2%, there are many people that want to 'trade for a living'. They want freedom.

But freedom from the corporate workplace, comes with a cost. The cost of freedom? Is freedom itself. Because that in our lives? We may become "institutionalized" . . .



... but like Red? That doesn't mean that we cannot have hope . And if we're going to continue the "Shawshank" analogy, then for pities sake ... have the patience of Andy Dufrane when trying to break into this industry ...

Others do not want to trade for a living. I discuss each viewpoint in the following "traders thoughts" entry ...

(Video Included. If you're seeing this entry elsewhere and cannot see the Video? Click here to view the entry ...)


Here is the link to the article by "Shoot an Apple of my Head" or "Shoot" as we call him, at Trading Apples ...

Again, here is the one quote that I found that was just priceless ..

"Trading has called many, but chosen few. And I believe this is, in part, for the following reason. In most cases, trading is going from a setting where you are told exactly what to do to make money to a setting where no one tells you a single thing about how to make money. From a situation where you have almost no control over your day to day activities to a situation where you have total control of your day to day activities. The contrast is often murderous. Many who begin trading think they are moving into a profession in which their objective is to trade the market and derive some sort of income from these activities. Many pay very little to zero attention to their biggest hurdle, which is that they first have to learn the art of complete control after having almost none for their entire workplace experience. This is where properly managing individual trader psychology fits into it's most important and original place. It is the common lineage of all great traders."

* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have over 13 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Monday, November 16, 2009

Monday Challenge Project Summary: November 16, 2009

Previous Challenge Project Balances:

Investing Account Balance: $680.86
Stock / Futures Trading Balance: $1,571.21
Savings Balance: $175.03
Total Challenge Project Funds: $2,427.10

The original video explanation of the Challenge Project that began with $500, is to be found here.

Rule No. 2 of the Challenge Project states that each month, we can divvy up $100.00 as we wish between the various challenge project accounts. Some time ago I stated that I may split up Rule No. 2, into weekly segments; or, $25.00 a week.

For this week, the $25.00 weekly deposit is being transferred to the Challenge Project INVESTING Account.

Normally, I probably would have applied rule no. 2 to the trading account. The reason why, is that the equity curve is slowing up, and I would like to see that curve continue at the same rate of increase.

But we have some Dollar Cost Average (D.C.A.) reserve shortfalls to cover yet in the Investing Account. In effect, with the slush fund in effect, those shortfalls are covered. But I still want the cash there to cover those shortfalls with actual cash. Because after that, we have to work on increasing the amount that we reserve to D.C.A positions. It will not remain at simply $60.00 to $80.00 a piece.

After this is accomplished, we also have to build cash for another investment purchase.

But I won't forget, nor abandon the trading account or the savings account when it comes to rule no. 2. I have really concentrated on "straightening up" the investing account lately, and only in rare cases have we applied rule no. 2 to the trading or the savings account. Now that the investing account is in a little better position, you'll probably see me 'even out' the deposits; although I will still favor the investing account. There's a lot of work to be done with that account.

So in actual practice, I would imagine that in coming weeks, you will see that rule no. 2 will be applied twice to the investing account, for every one time that it's applied to the trading or the savings account.

Remember, the DRIP Dividend ReInvestment Plan for McDonalds is OFF

Here are the new balances for each of the Challenge Project, after this weeks deposit ...

Challenge Project Balances After Rule No. 2 Deposit:

Investing Account Balance: $710.82
(YTD cash and equity up about 46.5% Return is about 1.40%)
  • 4.1377 shares of KO (DRIP on)
  • 3.0546 shares of JNJ (DRIP on)
  • 2 shares of MCD (DRIP if now OFF)
  • Cash: $162.41
-$60.00 of this cash I reserve to D.C.A. KO
-$60.00 of this cash I reserve to D.C.A. JNJ
-$80.00 of this cash I reserve to D.C.A. MCD
-This leaves a -$37.59 shortfall for D.C.A. cash
  • Additional $43.00 available from slush fund
Investing Account Balance Since Inception
(Can be Enlarged):


Stock / Futures Trading Balance: $1,571.21
(YTD cash equity up about 55.0%. Return on Capital is about 2%)
  • 3% risk tolerance gives us $47.13 to risk per trade
  • Additional $43.00 available from slush fund
Trading Account Balance Since Inception:
(Can Be Enlarged)


Savings Balance: $175.30
(YTD cash equity up about 42.5%. Return on Capital is about 1.49%)
  • $43.00 for a Slush fund / Drawdown Kill Switch fund
  • $89.30 for a Base Savings
  • $43.00 for Emergency Savings
Savings Account Balance Since Inception:
(Can Be Enlarged)


We'll be back to the Challenge Project, next Monday.

* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have over 13 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Sunday, November 15, 2009

I'm personally SHORT Karl Denninger of the Market Ticker

It appears I'm going to break my own rules about 'naming names'.

Well. That was interesting. I was just banned from "The Market Ticker" for probably one of the single most polite responses to someone calling me a "douche" in public.

You know, I can understand banning someone from your site, or blog, for disrespectful behaviour, and childish actions. But there is a difference between disrespectful behaviour, and respectfully challenging another viewpoint; which should lead to interchange which allows both adults to grow in their understanding of one another, and of themselves.

So was I disrespectful? You be the judge. As follows, was my response regarding the Dollar Carry Trade on "The Market Ticker" First of all, I quoted Karl, as you will note below with the "Quotes".
Quote:
Don't be a douche. OF COURSE that is what happens wjen it unwinds - AND IT WILL.
I will ignore the foul language, as my parents taught me to speak to other adults, as adults. I do not insult others as means of response. It proves nothing, other than the transmission of emotion ... and I've been in this business long enough to know that emotion is the enemy of any trader, and any investor.

Quote:
Do you WANT to see the markets and government destroyed?
First of all, as an avid student of history, it is absolutely impossible to destroy the markets. It can't be done. As a student of Russian history, conversant in the Russian language, and especially in this 20th century, I'm telling you, despite whatever government you put in power ...

You cannot destroy the markets. Period. I don't care if you have a totalitarian regime ruling things with the iron fist of Josef Stalin - you cannot destroy the markets. You only transfer them. That's all. To destroy the markets, you'd have to destroy humanity. The skills that I've gained as a trader and investor will allow me to survive. James Clavell taught us all that a trader living in a Japanese Prisoner of War camp, can keep himself and others alive.

Secondly, your comment proves my point. Karl, I greatly respect your intelligence, and your ability to watch the Fed programs. But you have to understand a very fundamental fact:

Our intelligence means nothing when it comes to the future. In fact, I've found that in some ways, a high degree of intelligence inhibits profitable market action. You think too much. And you're succumbing to fear.

Was the unwind for Japanese Yen and the world horrendous? Absolutely. Is Japan still here? Yes. Did they try to stop it, and decrease volatility? Yes. Did it make matters worse? Probably. Are we still here and trading the capital markets? Yes.

And for a trader and investor? That's all that matters.

The flash point has not yet been reached for inflation. Your assumptions regarding the U.S. Dollar Index are only that, assumptions regarding how bad it will get. Gold is not inflation, it's fear and lack of trust. The basket of commodities ... gold, copper, oil, wheat, soybeans, corn and cocoa are inflation. And the flash point we saw in 2007 has not yet been reached. In 2007 we had Wheat taking off through the roof, along with Oil to $150.00

And continuing on your second point?

How many times do I have to say it?

This is not a nation of laws. This is a nation of kings. You yourself have said it. This is an oligarchy. You yourself have called them "oligarchs" You can change absolutely nothing. You continue to pour money by "calling your congressman". It's a losing trade. What have you changed? In years? What have you changed?

But every four years? People fall for that sucker play. That there is any progress, anywhere to be made in politics.

To become involved in politics is to believe that the financial and economic world is flat, and that any end result can be seen ahead of time.

And I can think of no more arrogant thought. It's a thought that history has proven a million times, to be incorrect.

Unless ... you're hoping to somehow create your own political party, and that is part of the reason behind the Market Ticker to begin with.

I've been in business long enough to see these things coming from a long distance ..."

For that post, I was banned from the Market Ticker. After he calls me a "douche", and my reply was to call the man a great Fed watcher, and an intelligent man. I did not disagree with his assessment that a Dollar carry trade is beginning. Simply his reaction to it. And after being called a "douche" I thought I was being as diplomatic as possible. I tried to reply to his next post, only to receive the great large red "access denied" message.

God knows that I'm no fan of the data that Dennis Kneale and others at CNBC try to present as economic reality. I've railed on and on about that long enough. But isn't Karl Denninger the same man, that in a blog entry, on the internet, call Dennis Kneale "an idiot"? Isn't this the same man, who when confronted by Dennis Kneale on the air on that bit of namecalling, simply sidestepped the issue?

My grandaddy taught me quite a bit about men who have a lot to say about you behind your back, but won't repeat their statements to your face, eye to eye.

We see these folks all the time in the markets. In my own experience, Karl is no different than those he decries on a daily basis; when he speaks with such righteous indignation. He is the king, he is the god. He knows best. He supposedly supports all of the principles of fair interchange, and the exchange of thought and ideas. We'd all be so much better off, if we just shuttup and listened to him!

In my own, humble, personal opinion ... this is a trait that I have personally found in many who run for political office, or form a political party. And let's not forget that this is the same man talked about forming a political party. So what better way, than to instill a fear of the "others" out there. As long as you talk about problems and issues that they bring up, then there is no problem.

As long as you agree with him. As long as everything goes his way. As long as you don't challenge him on points that he cannot defend, other than emotionally. But so help you god, if you actually challenge the guy? If you actually try to involve both he and you through an interchange of thought and debate, in an area he controls?

I mean seriously ... for that message? My parents taught me, not to surround myself with people who only agree with me? But those who can respectfully challenge my own viewpoint, which allows me to grow as a man. They also taught me to thank such people, and to draw them closer to myself as friends.

Well, Karls solution is very simple. He acts in the same manner as those he criticizes on a daily basis. I guess that "The Market Ticker" is not (and I quote him) "Second, The Ticker is not, as I've said repeatedly, a trading blog. Those who cannot be bothered to read the purpose of The Ticker and misrepresent it do no good for themselves or anyone else."

So we should all remember that "The Market Ticker" with symbols of Apple, the Dow Jones, AT&T, is not for a discussion regarding the very economic ideas and companies that Karl raises as points for discussion on his own forums.

Okkkaayyyyy

And people ask me why I refuse to become involved in politics.

Saturday, November 14, 2009

Week in Review: The U.S. Dollar Carry Trade (PODCAST)

"If you know the enemy and know yourself you need not fear the results of a hundred battles." - Sun Tzu, the Art of War

Welcome to the Week in Review!

So after a brief review of the market action for the last week, we'll discuss the "U.S. Dollar Carry Trade" and all of it's implications. My overall point is ... quit panicing !!

In the following podcast, I reference an inflation "pop point" or inflation "flash point" that I discussed at length in another podcast.

(Podcast Included. If you're seeing this entry elsewhere and cannot play the podcast? Click this link to go to the exact podcast entry ...)



Click here to Download this Podcast.

Market Multiples
Now, there's just a little more to market multiples, than "what the market is willing to pay for it." You can research more information on market multiples. But remember, what is important, is the context that we find ourselves in, and what people are willing to pay.

(Can be Enlarged):

Yes, we've clawed back to 10,000. Although many of us may have missed the fact that the "carry trade" with the U.S. Dollar was starting? The fact is that it is on, and it's moving the market higher. So we have to act, with that knowledge. Placing what's occurred within context? We have only begun to crawl out of the level that the "prolonged crash" put us in.

Carry Trade:
I wanted to include a chart of the Japanese Yen of what happened during the unwind ...

(Can be Enlarged):
But the Japanese economy, the Japanese, and the markets are still with us. It didn't result in the "implosion" of Japan.

Keep a Cool Head
To follow my comments regarding the importance of keeping a cool head, and working the problem, rather than whining and moaning? Where is the economy at the moment? Right about ... here ...



Just remember, it was a fictional story, but the U.S.S. Enterprise got out of that particular jam. People in real life, get themselves out of difficult situations by staying calm.

So too with your own personal situation. I hedge myself both ways. But for the love of God? You don't get out of bad situations by getting yourself into a panic, which is preceded by a "State of Fear". You have to have a level head, and you have to think.

That's not accomplished by sitting around and crying: "It's all coming to an end!". Just be aware the problem exists, and think about what you can do to prepare for any eventuality.

* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have over 13 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Friday, November 13, 2009

ARGH! What a day ...

I had a great day in the markets, but it seems that I have caught the "technical problem" bug that the Davian Letter caught this morning.

I've been working for about 2 hours trying to get a video done, and to save my life, I can't get it to capture the entire video's length. It's subject is "Trading Freedom", and how many are actually not prepared for that freedom. I have a lot to say. If I could get it done that is.

Regardless, tomorrow is the "Week in Review" where I will discuss what many are talking about "A U.S. Dollar Carry Trade", it's implications and my thoughts. On Monday we have the Challenge Project post, and hopefully, by Tuesday, I can figure out what the problem is, and why this video is not processing.

Thursday, November 12, 2009

Yes ... We're in a Complete and Utter Mess ...

"Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one." - Albert Einstein

I read the following late last night, in a local Michigan newspaper ...

"California’s state finances are awful, but Michigan is among nine other states that aren’t far behind the Golden State in economic trauma, according to a new study.

The shock waves of the domestic auto industry’s decline, home foreclosures and persistent state deficits could last for decades" - Detroit Free Press

It is refreshing that finally, the serious state of affairs here in Michigan is being acknowledged by someone in the mainstream media. Finally.

I talked about that ... what ... 5 months ago? I talked about the dangers of the suffering auto industry and the damage that resultant "economic population migrations" bring to an area ... what ... 6 months ago?

Of course, within that same newspaper, I had to really sift and search in order to find anything resembling the actualities that we are dealing with on a daily basis. It was hidden amongst such gems as "Fewer homes unsold in Detroit area" and I really loved this one "When Global Entrepreneurship Week kicks off Monday, Michigan will lead the nation with the most activities planned, a positive sign"

And yes. It is that serious here in Michigan. All of the nasty details that arise during economic population migrations; such as a rise in the crime rates, are occurring. Business activity is down across the board, and the only solution that ones keep parroting is to raise taxes on a population where the official unemployment, is already at 14.8%. I would estimate that the real unemployment rate, is more than likely around 23%.

As I mentioned in a "tweet" this morning, I live in a nicer area of my county in Michigan. No, I do not live in, or near Detroit. Regardless, the house behind us a few years ago was going for about $275,000.00. It's a nice home, new siding, great garage, 2 1/2 stories in addition to a basement. I know, because I've been somewhat interested in purchasing the home. But I knew the housing market was going to blow up, so I waited. That same house then dropped to $158,000.00 about 15 months ago. "Dream on" I thought to myself. The housing mess was in full swing. A few months back, they tried dropping the price to $69,000.00. It still would not sell.

It was just listed as a HUD home.

Yeah, you gotta love living in Michigan at the moment. The worst part of all of this? Is the fact that Michigan is a beautiful place to live.

But at least I can smile in that my conscience is clear. And it is yet another example of the mainstream media lagging far behind the intelligence that can be garnered from the new media to be found out there on the net. I am by no means alone in what I try to accomplish in educating others to economic realities. As my "Favorite Links" section demonstrates ... from bloggers to financial websites there is a host of new media to be found; where the reality of the current situation can be discussed, debated, and faced objectively.

Of course, it's still confusing world we live in. The deflation in asset prices was swallowed, almost whole, by the Federal Reserves various purchasing programs. We are facing a recession in the midst of a deflationary trap, while at the same time, finding ourselves concerned about currency inflation with the U.S. Dollar now funding the mother of all carry trades.

But at least there are those who are facing reality, rather than burying their head in the sand and saying "It'll all go away. It'll all go away."

* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have over 13 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

"Airelon's Market Tactics" and it's Relationship to this Blog

"There's no secret to balance. You just have to feel the waves" - Frank Herbert, Author

Challenge Project Balances:


Investing Account Balance: $680.86
Stock / Futures Trading Balance: $1,571.21
Savings Balance: $175.03
Total Challenge Project Funds: $2,427.10

This monday saw the launch of my new premium product "Airelon's Market Tactics". I talked about the launch in the "Week in Review" podcast. But with premiere of the newsletter I thought it best to address here, some understandable questions that the readers of this blog have raised through comments, private messages and emails.

1) Will the Challenge Project move away to the newsletter, as the Challenge Project grows?

No. This blog will still continue to post regarding the Challenge Project. The Challenge Project will still be a free model to those who are low funded. Those who have read this blog for some time know that I am very passionate about helping those with $100 to $300 in discretionary investing funds. Especially in the environment of 10.7% "official" unemployment, and 17.5% real unemployment.

2) Will this blog be more focused on the Challenge project moving forward?

In a way yes, but this is not because of the newsletter. I am in no way "taking content away" from this blog, to give it to the newsletter, to simply leave the Challenge Project here. Some time ago, I had mentioned that I would begin focusing in on the Challenge Project to a greater extant on this blog. The opportunity to begin working with The Davian Letter sprung up very quickly, and after I made those statements.

The increasing focus on the Challenge Project honestly has more to do with the fact that in the next 12 months, the Challenge Project will be entering a new phase of growth. This will allow for more frequent action on behalf of the project. Honestly, I gave myself the most severe forms of "handicap" that I could imagine, when setting up the Challenge Project. Because of this severe handicap, there has not been the opportunity to talk as much about the Challenge Project in it's opening phase. It's been about building capital, and very small positions.

Due to the natural life cycle of the Challenge Project, we will have opportunities to talk more frequently about it in the future.

3) Will there be any more educational videos and series here at the blog?

Absolutely. Remember, what is the purpose of this blog? At the top, we read:

"A blog to assist the newcomer to understand the
various facets of the capital markets."

So yes, I do feel that there is more information that I can impart in the way of instructional videos for the newcomer. I will also be "remaking" some of the older videos in the future. I've always attempted to take concepts and make them as easy to understand as humanly possible. In addition, I understand that there are those who may not wish to become a day trader or swing trader. But they still wish to be as informed as possible as to the goings on of the financial world. To understand general information of how moves in the financial world could affect their day to day life; without the bias and political leanings that some others fall victim to. This blog also caters to this group of individuals.

But this blog is for the newcomer, and those who wish to listen to financial happenings without a lot of technical jargon. It is not for more intermediate or advanced students of the markets. Each individual has to decide for themselves when they no longer fall into the "newcomer" or "rookie" state.

3) Will the 'Week in Review' podcasts continue?

Absolutely. My goal, is to take absolutely nothing away from this blog, in order to give it to paying customers. Of course, at the same time, I must protect the readers of that newsletter. It is a premium product, and the readers have paid good money for it's contents, thoughts and strategies. But no, the "Week in Review" podcast will remain, and in remain it's current form.

4) What is then, the purpose of "Airelon's Market Tactics"?

Each week, I review the markets for myself, and think of what trades I personally would take on. Of course due to it's size, these thoughts do not translate into actionable movements for the Challenge Project. Even when the Challenge Project reaches a size that I can translate my personal trades to the Challenge Project on a daily basis? This blog remains for the newcomer to the markets.

In addition, on a very public blog like this one, I'm hesitant to talk about my exact positions before the fact. Yeah, there's Dan's paranoid streak. But I don't need larger traders ganging up on my positions (and yes, it happens).

"Airelon's Market Tactics" will give specific, actionable comments, geared towards the intermediate or advanced trader and dividend investor each and every week. And do not fear that you'll open the newsletter to find jargon regarding the application of Levy-stable distributions to financial risk modeling. I will still talk in plain English. I will talk about my entrance theories, and how they relate to specific markets in the upcoming week for specific entry points. But as this is a premium service, I will work to protect the subscribers. I will not give away, what others have paid for.

In fact, the premiere issue alone had, what has turned out to be very profitable thoughts. Of course, that won't always occur. As I state very often, drawdown, or losses, are a fact of life in trading and investing in the capital markets.

I hope this answers, what were very honest and applicable questions regarding the newsletter.

So what's coming up here at the blog? I'm thinking of re-doing the "Charting 101" series, and in addition, some of the later videos in regards to the Investment Series need better organized and expanded upon. And as always, on Saturday, we'll have the "Week in Review" podcast. This week, I'm thinking of discussing what may be the next big problem that we should at least be aware of.

* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have over 13 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Monday, November 9, 2009

Monday Challenge Project Summary: November 9, 2009

Previous Challenge Project Balances:

Investing Account Balance: $659.73
Stock / Futures Trading Balance: $1,571.21
Savings Balance: $150.03
Total Challenge Project Funds: $2,380.97

The original video explanation of the Challenge Project is to be found here.

Rule No. 2 of the Challenge Project states that each month, we can divvy up $100.00 as we wish between the various challenge project accounts. Some time ago I stated that I may split up Rule No. 2, into weekly segments; or, $25.00 a week.

For this week, the $25.00 weekly deposit is being transferred to the Challenge Project SAVINGS Account.

Any time that money is sent to the savings account, then we instantly strengthen a 'base' on the Challenge Project. It's because we use the savings account for three purposes
  1. Drawdown Kill Swith Fund: 25% at this stage of the game is to be used as a slush fund, when the accounts hit their "drawdown kill switch"
  2. Base Savings: Foundation of all asset accumulation, is a set "tier" of capital
  3. Emergency Savings: 25% in this stage is to be used as an emergency fund. The unexpected happens, and you should always, always have funds set aside for that purpose.
When we consider the purpose of the drawdown kill switch fund, we see that we are actually strengthening the foundation on the two other accounts; both the investment and trading account. Simultaneously the base savings is increased, and the emergency savings is increased. In essence, a contribution to the savings account is a type of 'small addition' to all three accounts.

Look at the balances on the Investing Account below. You'll notice that the "Drawdown Kill Switch / Slush fund" is growing to a point, that nearly, almost, covers our shortfall of cash that we are reserving for Dollar Cost Averaging the dividend stocks we are holding. One deposit to the Investment Account, and we're essentially covered. This is why I was not concerned that we had a shortfall for this D.C.A. cash reserve when I purchased the McDonalds (MCD) stock. Yes, our "value at risk" is rather high at the moment. But as I mentioned, it was important to note the markets low volatility. With that low volatility I knew we had 'time' before we would be in a situation where we would need access to that cash.

Account Migration:
The next order of business? Is the migration that the Challenge Project is currently undergoing, to a sub-account at ThinkorSwim. I have the second account set up at ThinkorSwim for the Investing DRIP account. I have withdrawn all of the cash from Sharebuilder, and moved it to ThinkorSwim. Therefore, the $137.41 is now at ThinkorSwim, not Sharebuilder.

For the time being, I am leaving the stocks held at Sharebuilder there. This is only temporary, as I will be initiating an ACAT transfer soon, to move the shares that I already possess, to ThinkorSwim.

In addition, I am turning off the DRIP for the McDonalds (MCD) stock alone and will receive straight cash for the dividend. The primary reason for this, is the impending ACAT transfer. It doesn't make sense to accumulate partial shares at the moment for McDonalds; that will only need to be sold off. ACAT transfers cannot transfer partial shares. This works out well, because MCD has also seen an explosive move upwards in the price of the stock.

Here are the new balances for each of the Challenge Project, after this weeks deposit ...

Challenge Project Balances After Rule No. 2 Deposit:

Investing Account Balance: $668.67
(YTD cash and equity up about 37.5% Return is about -1.77%)
  • 4.1377 shares of KO (DRIP on)
  • 3.0546 shares of JNJ (DRIP on)
  • 2 shares of MCD (DRIP on)
  • Cash: $137.41
-$60.00 of this cash I reserve to D.C.A. KO
-$60.00 of this cash I reserve to D.C.A. JNJ
-$80.00 of this cash I reserve to D.C.A. MCD
-This leaves a -$62.59 shortfall for D.C.A. cash
  • Additional $43.00 available from slush fund
Investing Account Balance Since Inception
(Can be Enlarged):


Stock / Futures Trading Balance: $1,571.21
(YTD cash equity up about 55.0%. Return on Capital is about 2%)
  • 3% risk tolerance gives us $47.13 to risk per trade
  • Additional $43.00 available from slush fund
Trading Account Balance Since Inception:
(Can Be Enlarged)


Savings Balance: $175.30
(YTD cash equity up about 42.5%. Return on Capital is about 1.49%)
  • $43.00 for a Slush fund / Drawdown Kill Switch fund
  • $89.30 for a Base Savings
  • $43.00 for Emergency Savings
Savings Account Balance Since Inception:
(Can Be Enlarged)


You'll note that the bar graph for the Savings Account has a different appearance this week. Here's the story on that one ...

When I moved the account out of ING Direct? I then deleted that account listing in my Quicken tracking software. I wasn't thinking at the time, but that deleted the history of that account. With that history deleted? Quicken could no longer give me a graph of the account. I had to create a spreadsheet in OpenOffice, go back through all of my blog posts and note when I made deposits to the account, and create a new graph. Thus, the difference in the graphs appearance.

We'll be back to the Challenge Project, next Monday.

* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have over 13 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Saturday, November 7, 2009

Week in Review: Market Review and "Airelon's Market Tactics" (PODCAST)

"Ever since I was a child I have had this instinctive urge for expansion and growth. To me, the function and duty of a quality human being is the sincere and honest development of one's potential." - Bruce Lee

Welcome to the Week in Review!

Each week, for the "Week in Review" podcast, I tend to review the action in the capital markets.

After the review, I talk about something you may have heard a little something about ... "Airelon's Market Tactics" ...

(Podcast Included. If you're seeing this entry elsewhere and cannot play the podcast? Click this link to go to the exact podcast entry ...)



Click here to Download this Podcast.

Here is the link to the Davian Letter. The newsletter will be available on Monday.

* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have over 13 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Friday, November 6, 2009

Aren't You Glad that Unemployment is "Slowing Down" ?

"Don't piss on my leg, and tell me it's raining" - Favorite Axiom of my Father

For those that follow my Tweets, you know that I'm in a mood to rant about the unemployment numbers.

Around 10:00 am, my Tweet was as follows:

"Real Unemployment, Bloomberg finally admitting is closer to 17.5%. "Unemployment might be leading, rather than lagging" DUH! YA THINK?"

How long have we been hearing there are "Green Shoots of recovery"? Or "Unemployment is a lagging indicator. It doesn't proceed the recovery"? For how long can the mainstream media say things like this, and not expect people to laugh straight in their face.

For those who don't know what to make of the unemployment numbers? Let's put this in context, and look at the "reported" unemployment number, put to a graph ...

(Can be Enlarged):


Yeah. Exactly. As I mentioned, many times, this recession is now all about unemployment, and will end when the economy, the real economy, the private sector, has actual demand from the labor pool.

And yes, I did mention yesterday that the Baltic Index looks good. And yes, unemployment was last month, and is not reflecting any demand that might be building. But for god's sake, I'm getting sick to death of hearing how "everything is slowing down, and has been slowing down" when clearly, it has been accelerating.

Tomorrow is the "Week in Review" podcast, and I will be talking about my new product "Airelon's Market Tactics".

* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have over 13 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Thursday, November 5, 2009

Baltic Dry Bulk Index

Ok, so what's the "Baltic Dry Bulk Index"?

There are two thoughts people usually have in regards to this index. Thoughts that you need to immediately dismiss.

1) This Index is not limited to the Baltic states. I could get into the etomology of how "Baltic" came to be in the title, but that's a lot of minutiae and unnecessary detail.

2) This Index does not show how much cargo is being shipped worldwide.

I find a lot of people looking at this index, and thinking:

"Gee! Shipping of cargo is back up to where it was in 2006!"

That's not the case. That is not to say however, that the Baltic Dry Index is giving a bad reading at the moment.

To put it as simply as possible, the Baltic Dry Index is an Index that best measures the demand for shipping (how many vessels can ship, as opposed to how many vessels are needed), adjusted for the fluctuations in the value of the U.S. Dollar; in raw materials.

No this is not a market you can trade or speculate in. It is a measurement of what is real, and the demand in U.S. Dollars, for real goods being shipped worldwide.

The following is a 5 year chart of the Baltic Dry Index:

(Can be Enlarged):

So yes, things are looking better. Demand is rising for vessels to ships available to ship dry cargo. It doesn't mean that there is an economic boon on the way. But the demand is there. I've been a follower of the Shipping sector for some time. I like the Oil shippers myself, but also dry bulk.

A lot of ships that have been built recently, and have been sitting idle throughout this crisis. So if we've risen back up to 2006 levels on the Index; this I see, as a good measurement.

When considering where we are at with the economy? Don't forget to check out this Index. Not only when times are bad. Many loved to look at the "Baltic Index" during the crisis moments of 2008. But continue to look at it. Look at the revenue's from the shippers like DRYS, FRO, and GMR. And remember that this index must be taken in context.

* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have over 13 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Tuesday, November 3, 2009

Airelon's Investing and Trading Thoughts: November 2009 (VIDEO)

Challenge Project Accounts:

Investing Account Balance: $659.73
Stock / Futures Trading Balance: $1,571.21
Savings Balance: $150.03
Total Challenge Project Funds: $2,380.97

Here it is. My "outlook" vlog entry for the month.

Near the beginning of every month, I have an "outlook" entry in which I discuss what I have my eye on for the upcoming month.

So here are my thoughts, as they stand today for the next month.

And yes, the "R" word is involved ...


(Video Included. If you're seeing this entry elsewhere and cannot see the Video? Click this link to view the entry ...)




* * *

Challenge Project Accounts:

Investing Account Balance: $659.73
Stock / Futures Trading Balance: $1,571.21
Savings Balance: $150.03
Total Challenge Project: $2,380.97

* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have over 13 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Monday, November 2, 2009

Monday Challenge Project Summary: November 2, 2009

Previous Challenge Project Balances:

Investing Account Balance: $661.50
Stock / Futures Trading Balance: $1,546.21
Online Savings Balance: $150.30
Total Challenge Project Funds: $2,358.01


The original video explanation of the Challenge Project is to be found here.

Rule No. 2 of the Challenge Project states that each month, we can divvy up $100.00 as we wish between the various challenge project accounts. Some time ago I stated that I may split up Rule No. 2, into weekly segments; or, $25.00 a week.

For this week, the $25.00 weekly deposit is being transferred to the Challenge Project Trading Account.

Again, obviously this is to strengthen the balance on the Trading Account, and give us a little more equity to trade with.

So let's talk a little bit about this weeks decision.

Look across the capital increases that each of these accounts have enjoyed in 2009. The Investing Account is up about 35%. The Trading Account is up about 55%, after this weeks deposit. The Savings Account is up about 22%. Yes, that's all because of rule number two of the Challenge Project.

But as the accounts are so tiny, the accounts are at a a point where rule number two can add more in terms of a percentage to our accounts safely, than a trade or investment could, as participation in the markets at this point opens up unacceptable risk. That's precisely why we stated that while we are at the current stage of development for the Challenge Project, the main goal was to bump up the capital in the accounts; and not actively trade the accounts.

Think about it. We could add $100.00 in a one month period to an account, with zero risk, and the account could grow in size by 75%. Or we could look for a $180.00 gain, but stand to lose 50% of the accounts balance. Which is the better business decision? Obviously, to not trade, and take the increase in capital via rule number two.

As time goes on, rule no. two will represent a decreasing percentage increase to the accounts. If we add $25.00 to the Savings Account at the present time? That'd represent a 16% increase in the capital in the account. But if we add $25.00 to the Trading Account, then that only represents a 1 1/2% increase to the account.

This means that as time passes for each account? 1) Trading will become more and more active. It has to, otherwise, all we're doing is adding money, and rule number two will have less and less impact to the equity curve, and 2) It will become more important to feed the gains from more profitable accounts, to less profitable accounts.

Now I'm not saying that we're going to start actively trading the Trading account. $1,571.21 is still extremely small. Tiny. Heck, $3,500.00 is a small account. I'm simply trying to explain what you will see happen with these accounts as time passes, and what the strategy in the future is when it comes to the Challenge Project. The real trick, will be to continue trading returns and account growth of 50% and 35% per year.

Also, we have to consider that for the last month or so, we've concentrated on increasing the size of the Investing account. So if you look at the equity curve on the trading account? It has gone a little flat in recent months. So this weeks decision is really about "throwing a bone" to the trading account.

Here are the new balances for each of the Challenge Project, after this weeks deposit ...

Challenge Project Balances After Rule No. 2 Deposit:

Investing Account Balance: $655.58
(YTD cash and equity up about 35% Return is about -3%)
  • 4.1377 shares of KO (DRIP on)
  • 3.0546 shares of JNJ (DRIP on)
  • 2 shares of MCD (DRIP on)
  • Cash: $137.41
-$60.00 of this cash I reserve to D.C.A. KO
-$60.00 of this cash I reserve to D.C.A. JNJ
-$80.00 of this cash I reserve to D.C.A. MCD
-This leaves a -$62.59 shortfall for D.C.A. cash
  • Additional $37.53 available from slush fund
Investing Account Balance Since Inception
(Can be Enlarged):


Stock / Futures Trading Balance: $1,571.21
(YTD cash equity up about 55.0%. Return on Capital is about 2%)
  • 3% risk tolerance gives us $47.13 to risk per trade
  • Additional $37.53 available from slush fund
Trading Account Balance Since Inception:
(Can Be Enlarged)


Savings Balance: $150.30
(YTD cash equity up about 22.3%. Return on Capital is about 1.49%)
  • $37.53 for a Slush fund / Drawdown Kill Switch fund
  • $75.24 for a Base Savings
  • $37.53 for Emergency Savings
Savings Account Balance Since Inception:
(Can Be Enlarged)
We'll be back to the Challenge Project, next Monday.

* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have over 13 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

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