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Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Airelon's Challenge Chronicles No. 2.2: Evolving Thoughts

(There are two posts thusfar today)

You can find a description of "Airelon's Challenge Chronicles" by clicking here.

I'm not sure if you saw my comments on the Facebook page, but I figured I had best make those comments here at the daily blog.

First of all, I won't be trading those accounts today. The reason ... well ... without getting into gory details, I had to stay up pretty late with someone last night ... and I'm just ... beat. Flat out beat.

On the 'market moves'? I had a very brief profitable trade in Gold yesterday that I caught on a screen capture. I'll try to post that, perhaps by Thursday. As you can see by this mornings prices however? The bias is completely breaking down on the daily chart. So I 'scratch' the trade from consideration for now, as I mentioned in my 'trading methodology' series. Because as I mention in that series? I always work at filtering through the trades that I find by Sunday evening / Monday mornings. Throughout the week, I scratch some trades, and focus in on others.

That stinking U.S. Dollar just continues to move higher, so no way to play that one either. OJ looks gook, if I could catch the timing right, which from the 10 minute chart and the one hour chart ... looks very, very tricky. All I personally see is a lot of possibility for whip-sawing. Cocoa is sort of the same story, and overall ... looks to be still bottoming. The thing I don't like about Cocoa, is that the average daily range is just ... gargantuan.

Live Cattle and Lean Hogs looks RIPE for a short if it can plunge below that level of support around 105.50 or so in Live Cattle and 76.025 region in Lean Hogs ... but shorts have to be very careful of the thin opens in active trading which can be exceedingly volatile. It's why I don't trade the first five minutes of many commodity futures markets.

But as I mentioned at the beginning, I have the alerts set on General Mills (GIS) and the equities markets overall, according to my comments on Sunday. I will set some alerts in the meat markets. But past those audible alerts? I'm going to try to catch some sleep ... because I'm just beat. If I wake up and there is a trade in the meat markets? Perhaps I'll take it. But I'm so tired at the moment, I'm having a hard time thinking straight.

Which isn't a smart way to trade.

Edit: 9:40 am est - Stuck around to watch the open ... was thinking of buying 9 shares of General Mills (GIS) for the A.C.C. Dividend account, and it just got crushed after 5 minutes. Which is why I've made a habit of watching and waiting for the open to play out. I have to see consistent upside pressure (which is not the same as seeing the stock 'hit a price') before I'd like to buy this stock around $35.40.

Edit: 11:37 am est - Well ... it looks like I'm just bound not to get any sleep today. Filled up on coffee. Someone else had got a hold of me and asked if I could be available. So as I saw the pressure building, I put in an order on the A.C.C. dividend accounts to buy 10 shares of General Mills (GIS) at $35.37

Edit: 12:31 pm est - Going to try to get some sleep again ...

Edit: 3:22 pm est - Phew, amazing how great you can feel after a few hours of 'recharge' sleep. GIS is doing well, but I'm actually expecting a bit of a pullback. Not looking at other markets, too late in the day.

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Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 14 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

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