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Friday, November 5, 2010

NFP Number Kills It ...

(+ 70,000 expected. + 151,000 actual)

When that NFP Jobs number came out ... I actually had myself a good long laugh. Seriously. An honest to goodness 'laugh out loud'. I couldn't help myself.

An 'out-loud' laugh at all of the econo-bear traders out there who are consistently wrong, and have passed up some of the easiest money to be made. A laugh at that ridiculous Peter Schiff (who in my own personal and humble estimation, should be brought up and prosecuted on neglect of fiduciary for what he has done to people) and his cult of merry men. A laugh at the people who trade on emotion because they don't like QE 2.0, or they don't like the government, or they don't like who was elected. A laugh at Karl Denninger's and Gerald Celente's with their "this time I'm serious, sell all your stocks ... dear lord, I'm in love with the camera". A laugh at the people who cry about some PPT ... out "to get them". I have tried to help for almost 4 years, and I'm sorry ... this morning ... I allowed myself an honest 'laugh out loud'.

I didn't have a public + 80% 12 months on the trading front because I have to listen to some nitwit who is selling a book to tell me how to invest. I have my own mind that I apply towards the markets. I haven't had + 43% years on the investing route, because some "guru" told me to buy "X". I have my own mind, and I have the data.

Now, no doubt, the econo-bears will come up with some reason why the 151,000 jobs is not really that great of news. They've been doing it for the last year or so. And to be sure, there will be bumps and obstacles in this number. But they will continue to pick out only the bad news, only the 'fearful news', and ignore any positive economic numbers in order to fight what is a very clear trend, until their final capitulation comes.

But really? People want the dip to come, because as Jefferson Krull has said on more than one occasion ... they are angry because they missed their chance, and they want a second chance. Well, May was it. May was their chance. They want the DOW 6,600 again ... not because they want the country or the economy in the toilet. But because they want a 2nd chance.

"This time I'll buy. I really will"

The market doesn't give second chances. Not in the 14 to 15 years I've been both trading as well as investing.

I quoted Matt Busigin for the title of this blog entry, and I quote him yet again ...

"When both the data AND prices have perpetually confused you, it's possibly time to change your mind."

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Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 14 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

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