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Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Airelon's Challenge Chronicles No. 2.2: Evolving Thoughts

(There are two posts thusfar today)

You can find a description of "Airelon's Challenge Chronicles" by clicking here.

I'm not sure if you saw my comments on the Facebook page, but I figured I had best make those comments here at the daily blog.

First of all, I won't be trading those accounts today. The reason ... well ... without getting into gory details, I had to stay up pretty late with someone last night ... and I'm just ... beat. Flat out beat.

On the 'market moves'? I had a very brief profitable trade in Gold yesterday that I caught on a screen capture. I'll try to post that, perhaps by Thursday. As you can see by this mornings prices however? The bias is completely breaking down on the daily chart. So I 'scratch' the trade from consideration for now, as I mentioned in my 'trading methodology' series. Because as I mention in that series? I always work at filtering through the trades that I find by Sunday evening / Monday mornings. Throughout the week, I scratch some trades, and focus in on others.

That stinking U.S. Dollar just continues to move higher, so no way to play that one either. OJ looks gook, if I could catch the timing right, which from the 10 minute chart and the one hour chart ... looks very, very tricky. All I personally see is a lot of possibility for whip-sawing. Cocoa is sort of the same story, and overall ... looks to be still bottoming. The thing I don't like about Cocoa, is that the average daily range is just ... gargantuan.

Live Cattle and Lean Hogs looks RIPE for a short if it can plunge below that level of support around 105.50 or so in Live Cattle and 76.025 region in Lean Hogs ... but shorts have to be very careful of the thin opens in active trading which can be exceedingly volatile. It's why I don't trade the first five minutes of many commodity futures markets.

But as I mentioned at the beginning, I have the alerts set on General Mills (GIS) and the equities markets overall, according to my comments on Sunday. I will set some alerts in the meat markets. But past those audible alerts? I'm going to try to catch some sleep ... because I'm just beat. If I wake up and there is a trade in the meat markets? Perhaps I'll take it. But I'm so tired at the moment, I'm having a hard time thinking straight.

Which isn't a smart way to trade.

Edit: 9:40 am est - Stuck around to watch the open ... was thinking of buying 9 shares of General Mills (GIS) for the A.C.C. Dividend account, and it just got crushed after 5 minutes. Which is why I've made a habit of watching and waiting for the open to play out. I have to see consistent upside pressure (which is not the same as seeing the stock 'hit a price') before I'd like to buy this stock around $35.40.

Edit: 11:37 am est - Well ... it looks like I'm just bound not to get any sleep today. Filled up on coffee. Someone else had got a hold of me and asked if I could be available. So as I saw the pressure building, I put in an order on the A.C.C. dividend accounts to buy 10 shares of General Mills (GIS) at $35.37

Edit: 12:31 pm est - Going to try to get some sleep again ...

Edit: 3:22 pm est - Phew, amazing how great you can feel after a few hours of 'recharge' sleep. GIS is doing well, but I'm actually expecting a bit of a pullback. Not looking at other markets, too late in the day.

* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 14 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Trading Psychology and Emotional Discipline (Series): Merchants of Fear (VIDEO)

(There are two posts thusfar today)

"Many of us crucify ourselves between two thieves - regret for the past and fear of the future." - Fulton Oursler

"And I myself have seen all the hard work and all the proficiency in work, that it means the rivalry of one toward another; this also is vanity and a striving after the wind" - Ecclesiastes 4:4


To continue in the endeavor of 'tweeking' my playlist videos, I wanted to insert a video into my playlist, or series of videos that discusses "Trading Psychology and Emotional Discipline". The link to the blip.tv RSS feed of this playlist can be found by clicking here.

When someone tries to sow the seed of fear and doubt? And that's all they do? That's almost ... demonic in its implications and effects ...

(Video Included. If you're seeing this entry elsewhere and cannot see the video? Click here to view the entry ...)


The Comex Silver market is not a market to determine Silver prices. It's there to perform hedging for commercial interests on future uncertainty. Traders only provide the liquidity. JP Morgan, if all of those positions belong to them, would only represent their hedge against their business revenues ... and they can adjust that hedge as the need may arise. It is not a position.

* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 14 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Monday, November 29, 2010

Monday Challenge Project Summary: November 29, 2010 - Overall Thoughts and Staying Busy (VIDEO)

(There are three entries today)

Previous $500 Challenge Project Balances:


"The Three Sisters":

Investing "Sister" Balance: $990.88
Trading "Sister" Balance: $2,194.36
Side-pocket Savings "Sister" Balance: $575.30

Total Challenge Project Funds: $3,760.54


Introduction:
The original video explanation of the Challenge Project that began with $500, is to be found here. The Challenge Project is basically a demonstration of a model that anyone could at least follow along with on a weekly basis. It is my attempt without cost, to help out the 'little guy' when it comes to investing and trading by providing an example, a 'model' as it were ... as run by myself as a professional trader with real money, in accounts that I own; following my own three sisters portfolio management system; albeit modified a bit to operate with low funds. From time to time, I provide snapshots of the broker statements.

Rule No. 2 of the Challenge Project states that each month, we can divvy up $100.00 as we wish between the various challenge project accounts. We split up Rule No. 2, into weekly segments; or $25.00 a week. As I mentioned on August 10th, I am in the processing of liquidating my own personal accounts, and will soon be trading this 'Challenge Project', full time.

For this week, there is no $25.00 weekly deposit. Rule No. 2 has been exhausted for the month of November.

(Video Included. If you're seeing this entry elsewhere and cannot see the Video? Click here to view the entry ...)



Here are the new balances for each of the Challenge Project accounts ...

Challenge Project Balances After Rule No. 2 Deposit:

Goals for Each Account By the Time I Actively Trade the Challenge Project Full Time
  • Investing Account: More cash, will evaluate
  • Trading Account: $2,400.00
  • Savings Side-Pocket Account: $800.30
Investing Account Balance: $981.66
(YTD the account is +22.84% YTD Return is about +11.04% Continuing Yield is approximately +6.96% in cash dividends and additional shares of stock)
  • 6.2685 shares of KO (DRIP is on for 4.2685 shares)
  • 5.158 shares of JNJ (DRIP is on for 3.158 shares)
  • Cash: $258.45
-$22.00 of this cash I reserve for 'maneuvering' capital
-$ 8.00 of this cash I reserve to D.C.A. KO

-$19.00 of this cash I reserve to D.C.A. JNJ
-This leaves $209.45 cash available for a new purchase
  • Additional $143.00 available from slush fund, up to $1,133.88
Investing Account Balance Year to Date
(Can be Enlarged):


Stock / Futures Trading Balance: $2,194.36
( YTD cash contributions, equity and return up about 37.49 % )
  • 2% risk tolerance gives us $43.89 'at risk' levels
  • 3% risk tolerance gives us $65.83 'at risk' levels
  • Additional $143.00 available from draw-down / slush fund, to $2,337.63
Trading Account Balance Year to Date:
(Can Be Enlarged)

Savings Side-Pocket Balance: $575.30
(YTD cash equity up about 187.2 % Return on Capital is 0 %)
  • $143.00 for a Slush fund / Draw-down Kill Switch fund
  • $289.30 for a Base Savings
  • $143.00 for Emergency Savings
Savings Side-Pocket Account Balance Year to Date:
(Can Be Enlarged)


Total $500 Challenge Project Balance: $3,751.32

* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 14 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Missed a Few Opportunities (Trades)

(There are three entries today)

For "A.C.C.". With the wife sleeping, my volume was muted and I didn't hear the alerts go off.

Yeah ... that's what trading is like when you are trading from home. Scenarios like that happen all the time. I've got an order in to short the mini, the spread is really wide though, so I'm going with a stop / limit. We'll see what we get.

Phew .... time to wake up.

Edit: Cancelled the order just now, with the spike up in Gold on the short time frames. With the break higher, the DX / UUP has to form completely new congestion period for me to look at that market for a short. Just watching other markets.

Edit: Jumped in again later, and shorted Gold for a profit ... and captured the whole trade live with screen capture. I hope to post that video sometime this week.

Airelon's Challenge Chronicles No. 2: Portfolio Decisions, Market Thoughts and Demo Account Setup (PODCAST and VIDEO)

(There are three entries today)

So what is "Airelon's Challenge Chronicles"? You can find a description by clicking here.

This is issue number two. I discuss my decisions in regards to the portfolio as a whole, some thoughts on the dividend investing route, the application of rule no. two as it would apply to "A.C.C.", a bit of portfolio management for such accounts, and also a number of trades that I'm personally looking at for this 'project' ...

(Podcast Included. If you're seeing this entry elsewhere and cannot play the podcast? Click this link to go to the exact podcast entry ...)





Click here to download this podcast.

Alert setup on GIS if it breaks up and above $35.25. Alert setup on NYX if it breaks up and above $28.25. Alert on /ESZ0 if it breaks below 1179.25. Alert setup for /GCF1 if it breaks lower than 1360.40 for a trade in either mini-gold, or possibly GLD ITM (In the money) put options if the pricing is right in the active open. For the UUP ITM put options, I set an alert on /DXZ0 if it breaks below 80.32. On /OJF1, I set an alert to start watching for a breakdown below 150.50. For Cocoa? I set an alert if the market breaks above 2804 on /CCH1. I have no alerts setup on /LEG1 or /HEG1; as I'm just continuing to watch those markets.

Then, as the markets continues to evolve? My thoughts will continue to evolve and I may filter out markets, or focus in on specific markets; as I describe in my "Trading Methodology" series.


Here is a video that describes how to setup a "ThinkorSwim" demo account. It's changed just a bit, as I believe that video was created about two years ago. But it gives you an idea as to how to get started with demo trading ...

(Video Included. If you're seeing this entry elsewhere and cannot play the video? Click this link to go to the exact entry ...)



As follows is a summary of the "Challenge Chronicle" 'three sister' accounts as of this evening ...

Investing Account Balance: $1,306.66
(YTD the account is +0.0% YTD Return is about +0.0% Continuing Yield is approximately +6.96% in cash dividends and additional shares of stock)
  • 6.2685 shares of KO (DRIP is on for 4.2685 shares)
  • 5.158 shares of JNJ (DRIP is on for 3.158 shares)
  • Cash: $583.45
-$100.00 of this cash I reserve for 'maneuvering' capital
-$ 62.00 of this cash I reserve to D.C.A. KO

-$ 71.45 of this cash I reserve to D.C.A. JNJ
-This leaves $350.00 cash available for a new purchase
  • Additional $225.00 available from slush fund, up to $1,531.66
Stock / Futures Trading Balance: $2,500.00
( YTD cash contributions, equity and return up about 0.00 % )
  • 2% risk tolerance gives us $50.00 'at risk' levels
  • 3% risk tolerance gives us $75.00 'at risk' levels
  • Additional $225.00 available from draw-down / slush fund, to $2,725.00

Savings Side-Pocket Balance: $900.00
(YTD cash equity up about 0.00 % Return on Capital is 0.00 %)
  • $225.00 for a Slush fund / Draw-down Kill Switch fund
  • $289.30 for a Base Savings
  • $225.00 for Emergency Savings

Total Airelon's Challenge Chronicles Balance: $4,706.66

* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 14 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Sunday, November 28, 2010

I'm Not Sure if You Saw the Facebook Update ...

But I'll have the next "Airelon's Challenge Chronicles" out by tomorrow morning ...

Week in Review Podcast: Inflation, The Foods and the Important CURVE (PODCAST and VIDEO)

"It's the little details that are vital. Little things make big things happen" - John Wooden

Welcome to the Week in Week in Review podcast!

I've been talking about two things lately. Inflation, and quantitative easing. And in this podcast, I want to talk about my evolving, 'reactive' thoughts as it relates to both scenarios.

(Podcast Included. If you're seeing this entry elsewhere and cannot play the podcast? Click this link to go to the exact podcast entry ...)




Click here to download this podcast.

If you prefer the YouTube video version of the podcast, I have included that as well although there are no charts ...

(Video Included. If you're seeing this entry elsewhere and cannot see the Video? Click here to view the entry ...)




The Bond Curve



Edit: Ignore my ramblings on video codecs. I finally figured out a piece of software (Prism Video File Converter) that has helped me out get my mp4 files converted properly.

* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 14 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Friday, November 26, 2010

Airelon's Challenge Chronicles No. 1: Initial Outlay (PODCAST)

"When there is no skillful direction, the people fall; but there is salvation in the multitude of counselors" - Proverbs 11:14

So what is "Airelon's Challenge Chronicles"? You can find a description by clicking here.

This will be considered the very first "issue" so to speak, and discusses the 'outlay', and I also pose a question to you guys ...

(Podcast Included. If you're seeing this entry elsewhere and cannot play the podcast? Click this link to go to the exact podcast entry ...)




Click here to download this podcast.

I had mentioned that the podcast won't appear on itunes. Unfortunately, with my podcast host, I can't choose to 'opt out' of itunes on an individual podcast basis. I may have more videos in the future for "ACC" on blip.tv alone, and then opt of itunes on an individual video basis.

* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 14 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Trading Psychology and Emotional Discipline (Series): You'll Always Be Called An Idiot (VIDEO)

"The work of many of the greatest men, inspired by duty, has been done amidst suffering and trial and difficulty. They have struggled against the tide, and reached the shore exhausted." - Samuel Smiles

To continue in the endeavor of 'tweeking' my playlist videos, I wanted to insert a video into my playlist, or series of videos that discusses "Trading Psychology and Emotional Discipline". The link to the blip.tv RSS feed of this playlist can be found by clicking here.

At some point, you have to really analyze why it is that you want to trade, and invest ...

(Video Included. If you're seeing this entry elsewhere and cannot see the Video? Click here to view the entry ...)


* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 14 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Surprise No. Two: Airelon's Market Musings ?? (VIDEO)

"You can't beat the price. Free is in my budget." - Brittany Lincicome

Some time ago, I unveiled "Surprise No. One". If you wish have not yet seen that 'surprise', you can review it by clicking here.

Now ... at the present time ... I have no other investing and trading efforts, other than what you see in the Challenge Project. I have liquidated everything else. There is the Challenge Project, and only the Challenge Project.

But we have a problem. And thus, we arrive at surprise no. two ...

(Video Included. If you're seeing this entry elsewhere and cannot see the Video? Click here to view the entry ...)



Edit: Thanks to metalgamer1186, I am naming it ... "Airelon's Challenge Chronicles"

* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 14 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Monday, November 22, 2010

Monday $500 Challenge Project Summary: November 22, 2010 - New Lesson (VIDEO)

Previous $500 Challenge Project Balances:

"The Three Sisters":

Investing "Sister" Balance: $955.61
Trading "Sister" Balance: $2,194.36
Side-pocket Savings "Sister" Balance: $575.30

Total Challenge Project Funds: $3,725.27


Introduction:
The original video explanation of the Challenge Project that began with $500, is to be found here. The Challenge Project is basically a demonstration of a model that anyone could at least follow along with on a weekly basis. It is my attempt without cost, to help out the 'little guy' when it comes to investing and trading by providing an example, a 'model' as it were ... as run by myself as a professional trader with real money, in accounts that I own; following my own three sisters portfolio management system; albeit modified a bit to operate with low funds. From time to time, I provide snapshots of the broker statements.

Rule No. 2 of the Challenge Project states that each month, we can divvy up $100.00 as we wish between the various challenge project accounts. We split up Rule No. 2, into weekly segments; or $25.00 a week. As I mentioned on August 10th, I am in the processing of liquidating my own personal accounts, and will soon be trading this 'Challenge Project', full time.

For this week, the $25.00 weekly deposit is being transferred to the Challenge Project INVESTING Account.

(Video Included. If you're seeing this entry elsewhere and cannot see the Video? Click here to view the entry ...)



Here are the new balances for each of the Challenge Project accounts ...

Challenge Project Balances After Rule No. 2 Deposit:

Goals for Each Account By the Time I Trade Challenge Project Full Time
  • Investing Account: More cash, will evaluate
  • Trading Account: $2,400.00
  • Savings Side-Pocket Account: $800.30
Investing Account Balance: $990.88
(YTD the account is +23.99% YTD Return is about +12.08% Continuing Yield is approximately +6.96% in cash dividends and additional shares of stock)
  • 6.2685 shares of KO (DRIP is on for 4.2685 shares)
  • 5.158 shares of JNJ (DRIP is on for 3.158 shares)
  • Cash: $258.45
-$22.00 of this cash I reserve for 'maneuvering' capital
-$ 8.00 of this cash I reserve to D.C.A. KO

-$19.00 of this cash I reserve to D.C.A. JNJ
-This leaves $209.45 cash available for a new purchase
  • Additional $143.00 available from slush fund, up to $1,133.88
Investing Account Balance Year to Date
(Can be Enlarged):


Stock / Futures Trading Balance: $2,194.36
( YTD cash contributions, equity and return up about 37.49 % )
  • 2% risk tolerance gives us $43.89 'at risk' levels
  • 3% risk tolerance gives us $65.83 'at risk' levels
  • Additional $143.00 available from draw-down / slush fund, to $2,337.63
Trading Account Balance Year to Date:
(Can Be Enlarged)

Savings Side-Pocket Balance: $575.30
(YTD cash equity up about 187.2 % Return on Capital is 0 %)
  • $143.00 for a Slush fund / Draw-down Kill Switch fund
  • $289.30 for a Base Savings
  • $143.00 for Emergency Savings
Savings Side-Pocket Account Balance Year to Date:
(Can Be Enlarged)


Total $500 Challenge Project Balance: $3,760.54

* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 14 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Saturday, November 20, 2010

Week in Review Podcast: Life, Time Management, Charlatans and Incorrect Bond Focus (PODCAST and VIDEO)

"The bad news is time flies. The good news is you're the pilot." - Michael Althsuler

Welcome to the Week in Week in Review podcast!

The Week in Review has not been as regular as I would like as of late. But I'm rearranging my schedule a bit in order to get this podcast out. I talk about my own time management, as well as a summation of the capital markets along with a wrap-up on the bond markets, and why some folks miss the boat when they only focus in on one maturity ...

(Podcast Included. If you're seeing this entry elsewhere and cannot play the podcast? Click this link to go to the exact podcast entry ...)




Click here to download this podcast.

If you prefer the YouTube video version of the podcast, I have included that as well although there are no charts ...

(Video Included. If you're seeing this entry elsewhere and cannot see the Video? Click here to view the entry ...)



What do ya think? Will this bucket o' coffee keep me warm at the project down the street this morning?



* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 14 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Friday, November 19, 2010

Airelons Thoughts on Economics (Series): An Introduction (VIDEO)

"The supreme irony of the Information Age is that it gives new respectability to the uninformed opinion"

This started out as one video ... and it ended up the beginning of an entire new video series. I explain, in the following vlog entry ...

(Video Included. If you're seeing this entry elsewhere and cannot see the Video? Click here to view the entry ...)




* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 14 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Mike Norman Beat me to the Punch ...

So that cute little cartoon video that made the rounds the other day on "Quantitative Easing"? Maybe I don't have a sense of humor. But yeah ... as I mentioned yesterday ... it was pretty bad (and yes, I'm still planning on doing that entry on QE)

If you missed my Tweets and Facebook page update earlier? Mike Norman beat me to the punch in explaining just how bad that cartoon "Quantitative Easing" video really is. How much blatant misinformation is contained throughout the 'cute' little video.

I recommend checking out his entry ...

* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 14 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.
.

Monday, November 15, 2010

Monday $500 Challenge Project Summary: November 15, 2010 - Year To Date and Other Thoughts(VIDEO)

Previous $500 Challenge Project Balances:

"The Three Sisters":

Investing "Sister" Balance: $959.19
Trading "Sister" Balance: $2,169.63
Side-pocket Savings "Sister" Balance: $575.30

Total Challenge Project Funds: $3,704.12


Introduction:
The original video explanation of the Challenge Project that began with $500, is to be found here. The Challenge Project is basically a demonstration of a model that anyone could at least follow along with on a weekly basis. It is my attempt without cost, to help out the 'little guy' when it comes to investing and trading by providing an example, a 'model' as it were ... as run by myself as a professional trader with real money, in accounts that I own; following my own three sisters portfolio management system; albeit modified a bit to operate with low funds. From time to time, I provide snapshots of the broker statements.

Rule No. 2 of the Challenge Project states that each month, we can divvy up $100.00 as we wish between the various challenge project accounts. We split up Rule No. 2, into weekly segments; or $25.00 a week. As I mentioned on August 10th, I am in the processing of liquidating my own personal accounts, and will soon be trading this 'Challenge Project', full time.

For this week, the $25.00 weekly deposit is being transferred to the Challenge Project TRADING Account.

(Video Included. If you're seeing this entry elsewhere and cannot see the Video? Click here to view the entry ...)



Here are the new balances for each of the Challenge Project accounts ...

Challenge Project Balances After Rule No. 2 Deposit:

Goals for Each Account By the Time I Trade Challenge Project Full Time
  • Investing Account: More cash, will evaluate
  • Trading Account: $2,400.00
  • Savings Side-Pocket Account: $800.30
Investing Account Balance: $955.61
(YTD the account is +19.59% YTD Return is about +11.24% Continuing Yield is approximately +6.96% in cash dividends and additional shares of stock)
  • 6.2685 shares of KO (DRIP is on for 4.2685 shares)
  • 5.158 shares of JNJ (DRIP is on for 3.158 shares)
  • Cash: $233.45
-$ 1.00 of this cash I reserve for 'maneuvering' capital
-$ 6.88 of this cash I reserve to D.C.A. KO

-$17.00 of this cash I reserve to D.C.A. JNJ
-This leaves $208.57 cash available for a new purchase
  • Additional $143.00 available from slush fund, up to $1,098.61
Investing Account Balance Year to Date
(Can be Enlarged):


Stock / Futures Trading Balance: $2,194.36
( YTD cash contributions, equity and return up about 37.49 % )
  • 2% risk tolerance gives us $43.89 'at risk' levels
  • 3% risk tolerance gives us $65.83 'at risk' levels
  • Additional $143.00 available from draw-down / slush fund, to $2,337.63
Trading Account Balance Year to Date:
(Can Be Enlarged)

Savings Side-Pocket Balance: $575.30
(YTD cash equity up about 187.2 % Return on Capital is 0 %)
  • $143.00 for a Slush fund / Draw-down Kill Switch fund
  • $289.30 for a Base Savings
  • $143.00 for Emergency Savings
Savings Side-Pocket Account Balance Year to Date:
(Can Be Enlarged)


Total $500 Challenge Project Balance: $3,725.54

* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 14 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Sunday, November 14, 2010

Review-less Week?

Wasn't it just last week that I was saying that I would have to see about making the "Week in Review" a little more regular? It's like it's becoming "Semi-Weekly Review" or something.

As you've no doubt guess, I wasn't able to get out a "Week in Review" this weekend. I had an annual two day assembly of a circuit of twenty six congregations, of which my congregation is a part for the last two days. Such assemblies and instruction helps me remain the person I am. I enjoyed myself immensely. Last night, I arrived home way too late to kick out the review, and tonight ... well, we have to start looking forward to next week.

I think next week, I may start it on Friday night after the close, just to make sure that we do have a "Week in Review" podcast next week ...

* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 14 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Friday, November 12, 2010

And That's It Folks ...

As I revealed some time ago, I was liquidating my personal trading accounts; and I'm going to perform a repeat of my success of the last 5 years. But this time I'm going to do it publicly with the Challenge Project.

So it's official ... as of todays date? November 12, 2010? I have the Challenge Project Accounts, and only the Challenge Project accounts as my total 'book'. Everything else has been liquidated (as you may have seen in the twitter stream ... allowing Mrs. Airelon to enjoy a new vehicle on top of a few other things).

I'm back in the trenches with the low funded.

Let's do it over again ...

* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 14 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Wednesday, November 10, 2010

Trading Psychology and Emotional Discipline (Series): Trader Death (VIDEO)

"The biggest liar is addiction." - Unknown

To continue in the endeavor of 'tweeking' my playlist videos, I wanted to insert a video into my playlist, or series of videos that discusses "Trading Psychology and Emotional Discipline". The link to the blip.tv RSS feed of this playlist can be found by clicking here.

We've all seen that video ...



It's what this industry can drive people to. I call it ... 'trader death'. Be it of one kind or another ...

(Video Included. If you're seeing this entry elsewhere and cannot see the Video? Click here to view the entry ...)



* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 14 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Tuesday, November 9, 2010

Monday, November 8, 2010

Monday $500 Challenge Project Summary: November 8, 2010 - Dangerous Phase (VIDEO)

(Don't miss the other post today)

Previous $500 Challenge Project Balances:


"The Three Sisters":

Investing "Sister" Balance: $946.60
Trading "Sister" Balance: $2,144.63
Side-pocket Savings "Sister" Balance: $575.30

Total Challenge Project Funds: $3,666.53


Introduction:
The original video explanation of the Challenge Project that began with $500, is to be found here. The Challenge Project is basically a demonstration of a model that anyone could at least follow along with on a weekly basis. It is my attempt without cost, to help out the 'little guy' when it comes to investing and trading by providing an example, a 'model' as it were ... as run by myself as a professional trader with real money, in accounts that I own; following my own three sisters portfolio management system; albeit modified a bit to operate with low funds. From time to time, I provide snapshots of the broker statements.

Rule No. 2 of the Challenge Project states that each month, we can divvy up $100.00 as we wish between the various challenge project accounts. We split up Rule No. 2, into weekly segments; or $25.00 a week. As I mentioned on August 10th, I am in the processing of liquidating my own personal accounts, and will soon be trading this 'Challenge Project', full time.

For this week, the $25.00 weekly deposit is being transferred to the Challenge Project TRADING Account.

(Video Included. If you're seeing this entry elsewhere and cannot see the Video? Click here to view the entry ...)



Here are the new balances for each of the Challenge Project accounts ...

Challenge Project Balances After Rule No. 2 Deposit:

Goals for Each Account By the Time I Trade Challenge Project Full Time
  • Investing Account: More cash, will evaluate
  • Trading Account: $2,400.00
  • Savings Side-Pocket Account: $800.30
Investing Account Balance: $959.19
(YTD the account is +20.03% YTD Return is about +11.65% Continuing Yield is approximately +6.96 in cash dividends and additional shares of stock)
  • 6.2685 shares of KO (DRIP is on for 4.2685 shares)
  • 5.158 shares of JNJ (DRIP is on for 3.158 shares)
  • Cash: $233.45
-$ 1.00 of this cash I reserve for 'maneuvering' capital
-$ 6.88 of this cash I reserve to D.C.A. KO

-$17.00 of this cash I reserve to D.C.A. JNJ
-This leaves $208.57 cash available for a new purchase
  • Additional $143.00 available from slush fund, up to $1,102.19
Investing Account Balance Since Inception
(Can be Enlarged):


Stock / Futures Trading Balance: $2,169.63
( YTD cash contributions, equity and return up about 35.92 % )
  • 2% risk tolerance gives us $43.39 'at risk' levels
  • 3% risk tolerance gives us $65.08 'at risk' levels
  • Additional $143.00 available from draw-down / slush fund, to $2,312.63
Trading Account Balance Since Inception:
(Can Be Enlarged)

Savings Side-Pocket Balance: $575.30
(YTD cash equity up about 187.2 % Return on Capital is 0 %)
  • $143.00 for a Slush fund / Draw-down Kill Switch fund
  • $289.30 for a Base Savings
  • $143.00 for Emergency Savings
Savings Side-Pocket Account Balance Since Inception:
(Can Be Enlarged)


Total $500 Challenge Project Balance: $3,704.12

(Don't miss the other post today)

* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 14 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Final Issue of Airelon's Market Tactics ...

I'm making this final issue of Airelon's Market Tactics available to everyone. Here is the link. You can then download the issue, or read it online.

I begin with a discussion of portfolio management as it relates to the Model Accounts that benchmarked the results of the newsletter. I then discuss my broad outlook for the equities market, both pro's and cons. After which I discuss the foods in the commodity futures markets. I conclude with a summary of the Model Accounts at it's conclusion.

* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 14 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Sunday, November 7, 2010

Week in Review Podcast: The Dog, the Stick, Employment, Utilization and QE 2.0 (PODCAST and VIDEOS)

"The difficulty lies, not in the new ideas, but in escaping from the old ones, which ramify, for those brought up as most of us have been, into every corner of our minds." - John Maynard Keynes

Welcome to the Week in Week in Review podcast!

(Podcast Included. If you're seeing this entry elsewhere and cannot play the podcast? Click this link to go to the exact podcast entry ...)




Click here to download this podcast.

I think I've scratched the itch, for now ... of poking the easy targets. Let's get back to business of making money in the markets ...

If you prefer the YouTube video version of the podcast, I have included that as well although there are no charts ...

(Video Included. If you're seeing this entry elsewhere and cannot see the Video? Click here to view the entry ...)



Here are the best videos that I found, discussing the law of diminishing margins ...



This is part two of that entry ...



* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 14 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Friday, November 5, 2010

NFP Number Kills It ...

(+ 70,000 expected. + 151,000 actual)

When that NFP Jobs number came out ... I actually had myself a good long laugh. Seriously. An honest to goodness 'laugh out loud'. I couldn't help myself.

An 'out-loud' laugh at all of the econo-bear traders out there who are consistently wrong, and have passed up some of the easiest money to be made. A laugh at that ridiculous Peter Schiff (who in my own personal and humble estimation, should be brought up and prosecuted on neglect of fiduciary for what he has done to people) and his cult of merry men. A laugh at the people who trade on emotion because they don't like QE 2.0, or they don't like the government, or they don't like who was elected. A laugh at Karl Denninger's and Gerald Celente's with their "this time I'm serious, sell all your stocks ... dear lord, I'm in love with the camera". A laugh at the people who cry about some PPT ... out "to get them". I have tried to help for almost 4 years, and I'm sorry ... this morning ... I allowed myself an honest 'laugh out loud'.

I didn't have a public + 80% 12 months on the trading front because I have to listen to some nitwit who is selling a book to tell me how to invest. I have my own mind that I apply towards the markets. I haven't had + 43% years on the investing route, because some "guru" told me to buy "X". I have my own mind, and I have the data.

Now, no doubt, the econo-bears will come up with some reason why the 151,000 jobs is not really that great of news. They've been doing it for the last year or so. And to be sure, there will be bumps and obstacles in this number. But they will continue to pick out only the bad news, only the 'fearful news', and ignore any positive economic numbers in order to fight what is a very clear trend, until their final capitulation comes.

But really? People want the dip to come, because as Jefferson Krull has said on more than one occasion ... they are angry because they missed their chance, and they want a second chance. Well, May was it. May was their chance. They want the DOW 6,600 again ... not because they want the country or the economy in the toilet. But because they want a 2nd chance.

"This time I'll buy. I really will"

The market doesn't give second chances. Not in the 14 to 15 years I've been both trading as well as investing.

I quoted Matt Busigin for the title of this blog entry, and I quote him yet again ...

"When both the data AND prices have perpetually confused you, it's possibly time to change your mind."

* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 14 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Thursday, November 4, 2010

In Case You Missed My Bit on Facebook Today ... (VIDEO)

(Don't miss the other entry that is posted today)

... I'll repeat it here ...

I check out various twitter streams from time to time. Some of them are quite ... humerous. I saw quite a bit of whining in one such stream today regarding Quantitative Easing 2.0.

Let me refer such folks to the following video ...

(Video Included. If you're seeing this entry elsewhere and cannot see the Video? Click here to view the entry ...)



Folks going through a bad time and a dark spot in their life? I have tremendous empathy for them. I'll sit and talk with them for hours. I've been through those dark places in my own life.

But I can't abide whining, just for the sake of whining because someone doesn't 'like' something.

That being said ... the Challenge project dividend bearing stocks are just flying higher.

But the pain of the first few years I started doing this was so intense, I do not forget the number one rule when it comes to this business: RISK CONTROL

I've actually thought of writing a little entry that talks ...about the emotional toll this business can bring to the unwary; and the true extent of the emotional damage I suffered for the first few years in this business. But that's an idea I'm sort of wrestling with lately ... on how much I want to make public, and how much I want to keep private.

(Don't miss the other entry that is posted today)

* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 14 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

Small Accounts, Hedging, the Challenge Project and Rule No 2

"That which is static and repetitive is boring. That which is dynamic and random is confusing. In between lies art." - John A Locke

With Quantitative Easing round two (remember how I said it was like crack they just couldn't drop?) the markets were off to the races this morning.

It seems buy and hold is alive and well. Especially for those investors who don't get sucked into every headline that sends some traders into a tizzy and a blather-panic.

And with that push, the stocks being held in the tiny Challenge Project were off to the races, and broke above their recent resistance.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
Daily Chart


Coca-Cola (KO)
Daily Chart


That does not mean that I believe Coca-Cola (KO) or Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is a 'buy' at this time.

I've been thinking about applying rule no. two towards the dividend investing 'sister' account. First and foremost, because it needs the maneuvering capital just based on basic principle. Cash allows for maneuverability. And although I am enjoying a great rally here for the Challenge Project? I still have very little room to maneuver. I want the Challenge Project to get to the point where I can start thinking about implementing hedges, beyond using rule no. two as such.

How do I implement such hedges? Let me give you an example.

The newsletter is coming to a close on November the 9th. But before it went, I wanted to stress the need for protecting dividend investing gains. But I did not want to spend capital out of that Model Account on premium for an insurance hedge just for the sake of being protected. I set up parameters by which I would hedge that model account, that was at $5,627.06 including cash. For those folks, I discussed the need to hedge the model portfolio of that newsletter with an SDS if the market broke below 1164 on the S&P 500 Index. That was the parameters that I set up for myself, to initiate a hedge for that model account. It costs money to hedge an account. Money away from profits made. So I wanted to be sure that if a hedge was initiated, the market was definitely beginning to turn in that direction.

Which obviously it did not. Which means the hedge was never purchased for that model account. Which means that the model account could enjoy profits unimpeded by a hedge.

But what about for smaller accounts? What would I have done for the Challenge Project, at it's tiny little level, if the SPX had broken below 1164?

Applied rule no. 2 to the dividend investing 'sister' portion of the book. And I probably would have used 85% of rule no. two towards the cash that is reserved for maneuvering capital. Of course, this is all besides the point, as the SPX rocketed higher today. But sometimes, it's best to know the decisions that were not implemented, and the reasoning behind such decisions.

But since it's not going that route? I'll just go ahead and tell you that this means that I can use rule no. 2 for the trading account next week. With this recent push in asset prices? I have even more time. At some point however, I'm going to start having to add more capital to that account just for the sake of 'maintenance'.

On a related, but separate note ... I discussed Quantitative Easing in the podcast that I referenced at the beginning of this entry. I have been asked by several folks for a bit more clarification, and explanation. So what I'm thinking of putting together ... is a video entry that explains quantitative easing in the same manner I explained de-leveraging so long ago almost two years ago.

So I'm thinking of putting together a: Quantitative Easing ... illustrated. Keep your eyes peeled.

(Don't miss the other entry that is posted today)

* * *

Note: This is not an investment or trading recommendation. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 14 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

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