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Tuesday, January 4, 2011

A.C.C. 6.2: Morning Thoughts as of 8:16 AM EST (SCREENSHOT and VIDEO)

So what is "Airelon's Challenge Chronicles"? You can find a description by clicking here.

I thought I'd enunciate my thoughts on the markets this morning before we move too far along in the U.S. session.

Dividend Investing Thoughts

We got that break lower on General Mills (GIS). Makes the A.C.C. portfolio neutral, but is fantastic for the actual Challenge Project. Nothing has changed about this company, and the yield is still great, with a great outlook and earnings.

Now mind you, market expectation (part of a market price delivery mechanism, besides simple supply and demand) may choose to focus on the inflation story, and deliver lower prices on General Mills (GIS). I have no problem with that from the standpoint of A.C.C. From the standpoint of the 'Challenge Project', which does not yet have General Mills (GIS) in the portfolio? Then I just wait for more price congestion down the road for an opportunity to add it to the actual Challenge Project.

Basically ... it's good for both accounts. For A.C.C., we're getting the yield, and for the actual Challenge Project as well as A.C.C.? There may be an opportunity to buy at a better price ...



Trading Thoughts

Market No. 1
Crude Oil
Implied Bias: Short

We've put in a nice overnight low on the March contract in the $92.30 region. I'd like to see a break below that low before I start looking at being short according to earlier comments.

8:50 AM - Oil just dropped. Knew it wouldn't wait for the U.S. Session. Congrats to traders with accounts that could have taken advantage of that. Now, I'd wait for a rally to short ...

10:38 AM - Oil rallied, and I shorted that with going long the USO Put, and then jumped out of it when it stalled. Talked about some of it on the Facebook page that links to the twitter account. I'll post a screen-shot (yes, believe it or not ... people even fake 'demo' stuff)


Market No. 2
U.S. Dollar
Implied Bias: Long

I played this one long 'live' yesterday for a profit on both Facebook and Twitter. I also bought that UUP call option that I may have to dump out of as I look over the markets this morning. My alert is set at 79.005 or lower. We get there, I'll probably dump the UUP March 23 Call, which would bring me back to almost a 'flat' return on this trade. We'll see.

10:39 AM - Still long that call, the dollar is breaking higher, I've reset my alert on the underlying DXH11 to 79.305. I may take profits if the dollar position moves to become profitable as the USO Put did.


Market No. 3
Agricultural Commodities
Implied Bias: Short

Yesterday was a nice profitable 'fade' scenario based on my A.C.C. comments, but I rarely play fades, so I didn't look at this market much yesterday. Those who shorted that 'fade' ... congratulations.

This morning ... well, I want to see how the commodities play out, but they are moving lower as we speak. I'd want that to continue, I'd want to see the dollar strengthen, and possibly a short on the DBA if we were to rally, say up to $32.50 and then congest and break down out of that congestion.

We'll see ...



Edit: As I said ... I'll include a screenshot. Because yes, believe it or not? People actually do fake even demo stuff ...

10:35 AM A.C.C.
(Click here to enlarge)



Overall, a good day in the markets ...

(Video Included. If you're seeing this entry elsewhere and cannot see the Video? Click here to view the entry ...)



It was the most appropriate video I could find for a day like today in the markets. I mean let's face it. It was only one profitable day.

We spelled the word 'couch'.

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Note: The above statements should not be construed as an investment or trading recommendation. Airelon's Investing and Trading Journal is a blog that allows subscribers to look 'over my shoulder' as it were, for my own personal specific trading and investing ideas and thoughts for the next week. But they are only thoughts as of the moment of publication, and are subject to change.. Any trades or investments that I discuss within this blog are simply my own thoughts regarding my own investing and trading outlook. Remember that entering any market is an individual decision. There is no guarantee that I will enter, or have entered any of the trading or investing ideas that I discuss in this blog; as larger accounts may require a different strategy as the ones presented here. This blog simply contains my trading and investing thoughts for the next week. I, the author do not grant this work for wide distribution beyond any single individual subscriber as this publication is protected by U.S. And International Copyright laws. All rights reserved. No license is granted to the user except for the user's personal use. No part of this publication or its contents may be copied, downloaded, stored in a retrieval system, further transmitted or otherwise reproduced, stored, disseminated, transferred, or used, in any form or by any means except as permitted under the original subscription agreement or with prior written permission. I personally only enter any market after watching and reading the tape and I trade using money management principles. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle and market, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 14 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. Airelon's Challenge Chronicles are demo accounts,with all of the inherent problems therein, which are used within this blog in an attempt to track the results of my own thought processes., and is run as a model. Traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, due diligence, and tolerance for risk. Any pictures used within this blog are believed to be public domain. Any charts that displayed using the ThinkorSwim platform, or any other charting software are believed to be public domain. Any other pictures were obtained through Wikipedia's public domain policy. As a reminder, any trades discussed for "Airelon's Challenge Chronicles" would only be 'day trades' according to the parameters discussed for Airelon's Challenge Chronicles, at this stage of the game in order to escape the risk of over-leveraged gap opens in the commodity futures markets. As a 'trading sister' would have grown to the $30,000 level, I would have graduated the account into 'swing trading'. In addition, it is understood that readers have read my YouTube methodology series. It is also understood that the writer of this blog has repeatedly warned against the dangers of shadowing any other traders thoughts. The Challenge accounts are run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, and tolerance for risk.

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